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“ this is basically extrapolating the New York and New Jersey numbers”

That’s a poor measure for a number of reasons. Not least of which is we’re getting a lot better at treating Covid medically.



I don’t think that’s necessarily true. We don’t have enough data to support that claim, probably won’t for years.

Very few peer reviewed treatments have been socialized. Most evidence is that things “show promise” then end up being less effective after actual analysis.


Peer reviewed treatments, sure. But case studies have been widely shared between medical teams. Things like tummy time, steroids for people on ventilators, anti clotting agents, ventilator strategies and remdesivir are all things we've learned since the outbreak started. These aren't ground breaking cure all treatments, but they definitely moved the needle.


That's rich, coming from someone who just predicted a 75% uptick in all-cause mortality with 25% error bars!




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