I am reading the below paragraph from the guidance, and thinking that it would, necessarely, cause 'over reporting' of COVID-19 related deaths.
However, I am not a doctor, and do not know what was the guidance in previous years, as related to flu.
>"...
In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot
be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.” In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID–19 infection was likely. However, please note that testing for COVID–19 should be conducted whenever possible. "
I know about this from suicide prevention, but not for infectious disease, but I think it's the same for both.
The same process is used for other infection. The certifier has to say, to the best of their knowledge or experience, whether this thing was involved in the death.
> The underlying cause-of-death is defined by the World Health Organization (WHO) as "the disease or injury which initiated the train of events leading directly to death, or the circumstances of the accident or violence which produced the fatal injury." Underlying cause-of-death is selected from the conditions entered by the physician on the cause of death section of the death certificate. When more than one cause or condition is entered by the physician, the underlying cause is determined by the sequence of conditions on the certificate, provisions of the ICD, and associated selection rules and modifications.
This does have inaccuracies, but these are all listed as part of the method. These deaths are unlikely to be people who had covid-19 but died of other causes. These deaths are likely to be people who had covid-19, where covid-19 was a significant factor in their death. It's likely to under-count, not over-count, these deaths.
However, I am not a doctor, and do not know what was the guidance in previous years, as related to flu.
>"... In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.” In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID–19 infection was likely. However, please note that testing for COVID–19 should be conducted whenever possible. "