If our response has been commensurate with the threat or an overreaction is definitely an open question. One we probably won't be able to answer definitively for a while.

I saw one really good comment - we'll know for sure if we under reacted, but we'll never know if we overreacted

Oh I think it's very possible we'll know.

"Remember in 2020 when everyone lost their jobs and their houses and their retirement because some octogenarians died from a bad cold?"

This is the attitude that has me worried. It's CYA with a sprinkle of panic.

Which is exactly why it isn’t an overreaction.

Thanks to the lack of testing we have no idea how bad this is. And due to the severity of the worst case scenarios and relatively high probability of them be happening, in the absence of more information, an overreaction is indeed prudent.

That’s what people don’t get. Uncertainty often increases the need for more action, it doesn’t reduce it.

Omitting the rest of my argument (so that this can be hopefully kept more specific), arguing about this with people on HN actually made me think it's also part theater, just like airport security et al.

Consider this merits aside, even if quarantine saves everyone and lack thereof kills everyone; we don't know that yet.

If you are a mayor of Podunk, Nebrahoma, you have two choices. You can join in the quarantining with everyone else, and whatever damage that causes is not your fault. If someone literally comes to a town hall 2 years later to tell you they lost their job for 2 months, were evicted, got addicted to drugs and their life is ruined now, it will still be blamed on the virus and global economy and whatnot.

Now, if you don't join, not only you won't achieve much due to the others' actions - if anything goes wrong you will be blamed for every dead grandma and your political career is over.

There's really no incentive to not max out the quarantine theater, regardless of the relative merits of the measures taken.