Glubb's theory of the arc of empires is strongly influenced by Toynbee's A Study of History, which was in turn informed by the 20th century zeitgeist of historicism (a belief in recurring patterns of history), initiated by Marx, refuted by Popper, but ultimately going back to Ibn Khaldun's Muqaddimah.
Strauss and Howe's Fourth Turning follows in this tradition.
XX The inadequacy of intellect
Perhaps the most dangerous by-product of the Age of Intellect
is the unconscious growth of the idea that the human brain
can solve the problems of the world.
On the deterioration of political discourse ...
XXI Civil dissensions
Another remarkable and unexpected symptom of national decline
is the intensification of internal political hatreds.
Strauss and Howe's Fourth Turning follows in this tradition.