What does older mean in this context? Because some people still think the year 1996 wasn't that long ago. Modern Renault cars are fine and reliable enough. I've had 4 in my life time and had zero issues myself. I see a ton of them here in the UK and, again, they're fine.
show me a prompt that is meaningfully expertly crafted beyond just providing Do's, Do not's, task context, and a goal.
> Correctly prompt, to steer it, to verify it, and to improve the harness.
I doubt this a lot. The average AI user is running claude code as the harness, or Codex etc. prompting has no secret incantations, and steer and verify is just knowing what the answer should roughly look like, which is a domain skill, not an AI skill.
I feel like you don't have any friends who make software but don't know how to code.
Yes, they do make software now - whereas it was impossible before. You may be absolutely shocked at how bad LLM code can be when prompted from a noncoder. How buggy, and how absolutely rife with security problems it can have. I honestly don't know how they can get LLMs to write such bad software - but somehow they can. This is from people who have been vibe coding for 3 years straight btw (huge amount of time p/day).
It would be like Samsung: Samsung does semiconductors, smartphones, displays, TVs, appliances, batteries, shipbuilding, construction, insurance, hotels, and even theme parks.
Actually no. Asians have common decency to run separate businesses as separate companies. Samsung Electronics does a lot. But it really doesn't have direct hand in other business. Even if there is some ownership in them.
For Switzerland it would be significantly worse since they are surrounded by Germany, France, Italy, and Austria. So all trucks would be stopped at border. Food prices are already super expensive and this would make it worse.
They think it's a failure because their political class refused to use the new powers to implement the will of the people on immigration, not due to economics (which, again, were not affected).
Brexit was a referendum on immigration. It was the number one issue. Yet, successive governments since Brexit have turned immigration up to 11. No wonder they think it's a failure, the will of the people was ignored (and it's having real political blowback, with both major parties about to get reduced to dust according to polling).
I think you could argue Anthropic could be worth $1T. With AI becoming an essential work utility, every global knowledge worker would want a claude subscription. There are 650M to 1B of such office workers. 300M workers × $50/month × 12 = $180B/year. The genie is not going back into the bottle, I have seen what claude code can do when properly connected to tools.
But Micheals arguments are valid. There could be competition, or even local models, thus indeed becoming 'commoditized'.
What probability do you assign to that, especially since CC harness code leaked?
Because I used frontier models this weekend (I had 78% of my assigned tokens for this month left, I wanted to burn them before June 1st, ended up with 24% left), and tbh, I don't see much of the improvement compared to the models I use day-to-day. I'd rather pay less for a slightly worse model. Stacktrace analysis (or any bug analysis really) is where LLMs have the most success rate imho, and free models are good enough since last year. As for coding/architecture tasks, frontier models seems to hallucinate less, but I wonder if it's the guardrails or the he model themselves.
Well... $1 a day is not that far from that hypothetical $50 a month though.
Especially if it gives you access to significantly more powerful models (which it does).
EDIT: i still find absurd thinking that all those subscription would go to a single company, let me be clear. But that $50 price doesn't sound unreasonable at all.
> Especially if it gives you access to significantly more powerful models (which it does).
Anthropic and OpenAI are losing lots of money with their subscriptions. They are giving away access to those powerful models for cheap. The Deepseek price is the API price, which is the only sustainable approach here
AI is far from becoming an essential work utility, Anthropic will not be used by approximately 100% of the office workers in the developed world, and a price to sales ratio of over 5 for a company that is struggling to become profitable due to high operating expenses seems exceptionally high.
The problem with all these companies is that they are priced as if their training and inference costs are going to come way down, but somehow only for them specifically.
thing is, we have both local models and local hardware and a true evaluation would do a calculation before openai inflated thw market, before nvidia made circular deals and the other distortions.
i think youd find the ROI is nowhere near the API rates are the "price support" is entirely a figment of billionaires and their parasites trying to corner the market by horde logistics
It rather looks like chatgpt/antrophic enterprise tokens and API calls are too expensive. Competition is quite strong on openrouter.
However, the real problem is running wild with token burning. With parallel agents calling subagents you can burn lots of tokens per minute. Especially with thousands of engineers.
My agents are easily busy 30 min to a hour independently. Implementing their plan, building and running tests, verifying deployment, linting. So I switch between multiple agents. Each agent has its own branch and worktree.
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