I mean there is certainly tons of evidence that some fossil fuels (coal most notably) are on the way out. Fossil fuels as a class? Maybe but still a bit early to make that call

fun fact, the world burns more coal than it ever has. Take a look at Art Berman's talk at UT Austin, humanity has never transitioned off of anything.

The IEA (2024 WEO) has coal peaking in 2027, and all other fossil fuels peaking before 2030. Historically the IEA has vastly underestimated the growth in renewables. The 2025 report comes out soon, so we will see if anything changed in their prediction.

https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024

No validation versus some kind of ground truth . His training data set is very small and geographically limited. His model is likely pretty inaccurate

There was an oversupply of officers. At any particular point in time many of the officers were “on the bench” at half pay.

This made it easy to replace underperforming officers with those on the bench

Now do the part in brackets that appears to contradict it.

Ok I actually went and read the article by Allen, and I think LessWrong's paraphrasing is a bit sloppy. Allen's actual argument is that because all Royal Navy captains (not just those on half pay) are not permanent employees, they have the right to refuse any commission offered to them. They could then reject any commands that seem too dangerous or unprofitable. This would lead to adverse selection if there were no prize money (for capturing or sinking enemy ships, etc.) and they only received fixed wages. There would be little incentive for captains to take the unfavorable commissions. But the RN did have a very generous prize money system, and the prize money was often much greater than the regular wages. This means that even if a commission looked pretty bad, there was still the possibility of getting rich. Whereas there's no such opportunity at all if one's sitting on the shore. So captains rarely rejected commissions. It's basically akin to how startups usually offer more stock options and the chance to get rich in order to offset the higher risk and worse work/life balance compared to the BigCos.

> There would be little incentive for captains to take the unfavorable commissions. But the RN did have a very...

I suspect the RN was quite aware of the incentives facing captains, and could think a few moves ahead. And that captains understood their offers of commission weren't random - if you turned down a less-desirable one, you'd need friends in really high places for the RN to offer you anything better.

Grady over on Practical Engineering is going to be so excited (-;

I read Sabres of Paradise and it absolutely had a lot of parallels with Dune, and was a major source. Good book too

You should go to the funeral if you think the right thing is to go to the funeral

You should do it for yourself, out of respect for the person who died and respect for the loved ones remaining. Not out of societal obligation

The corollary to that is there are plenty of times where the right thing is to not go to the funeral. If you lack those things.

There have been times I don’t go the funeral. Because the dead person was a horrible person. When people asked, I said exactly that and many times the response I got was “man I wish I had not gone”

>You should go to the funeral if you think the right thing is to go to the funeral. You should do it for yourself, out of respect for the person who died and respect for the loved ones remaining. Not out of societal obligation

In 2024 it would be quite better if we did more things out of societal obligation, instead of each individual placing themselves (and their whims) as the moral authority.

A world where people only do what they want or feel like doing is indeed a pretty depressing world, I know because that's exactly the world I am living in. The world I grew up on was very different, and I absolutely miss it - Christmas parties, lots of birthday parties, church events, school events, local neighbourhood events... you name it, there were lots of things to do and go to and you were expected to. I think half of the time I didn't really want to, but it didn't cross my mind to say I didn't want to go, and I think that was much, much better - today I barely go anywhere, but I know people also won't come if I call them :( it's just such a sad world.

These things still exist, but they sometimes take time to discover and even longer to gain a sense of belonging. I like to call them "tribes" but really it's just a community. Sometimes the intersection of your { interests + location } may not have a vibrant community which happens to contain members who readily welcome new people, and so it requires a bit more effort.

Some examples of communities I've been a part of over the years:

- Family

- Church groups

- Bar buddies (overlapping with the previous category :))

- Biker community

- Startup community

- Technology groups

- Queer communities

- Neighbor groups

It was a lot harder to get into groups when I used to be introverted, I distinctly remember how afraid I was. My startup was the thing that forced me way out of my comfort zone and led me to learn how to overcome my fears of joining groups full of unknown people. The "ah-ha" moment was when I realized many others had the same fears and insecurities as I did, and yet that's ok.

I'm tired, boss

You haven't tried...

I recently had the occasion to visit the deathbed of a relative who died with much of his family deeply wounded by, and angry at, him. Had you known him, you might have called him a horrible person and not without some backing for that claim.

But I went because I felt a duty to my relatives that isn’t released just because they didn’t hold up their end of the bargain: he had indirectly given me life, even if he had done much ill besides. And moreover I felt an obligation to the office of the head of my family that transcended the particular man.

It would be a grim world in which comfort for the grieving is a service the deceased must have earned in advance, and we the comforters decide whether they have really earned it.

By being too lenient towards those who have not deserved it, we are being unjust towards those who have.

I guess I've just never felt as though my condolences for a grieving family were a prize to be earned.

> There have been times I don’t go the funeral. Because the dead person was a horrible person.

The funeral is a ritual for the people who knew and loved the dead person. The question should really be about them, rather than the deceased who is dead and gone.

And if those people are going to be talking about how great someone I despised was, it's best for all of us if I stay home.

Slightly disagree, only in that the people who supported the horrible person should hear the terrible acts done. Otherwise, yes. No comfort to those who comfort/enable abusers.

I hear this argument again and again, that the dead was despised thus the funeral should not be attended. Really folks, if all people you know are to be despised, then maybe the problem is not with them? Sure, there always is the occasional asshole, but it's not always the one in the coffin, so indeed then there might be times when we should just stay home for the better of everybody.

>You should go to the funeral if you think the right thing is to go to the funeral

More broadly, your actions are a reflection of your values. If there's a mismatch, then one of two things must be true: you fell short of your ideals and you should strive to do better in the future, or your stated values really aren't your values.

You aren't punishing the dead person by not going. Just punishing what friends and family he or she had, out of spite. Making enemies. I mean when you say "horrible person" you're not talking about Adolf Hitler or Pol Pot, you're just talking about someone you thought (rightly or wrongly) an asshole.

Now you've made yourself the asshole to other people. Not a great life strategy.

You made a lot of assumptions in your post just so you could wag your finger at the GP.

> Not out of societal obligation

Societal obligation in this case is literally basic minor respect towards the remaining people. And frankly, the loneliness epidemic HN like to talk about is closely related to the ideology where the only thing that matters is yourself.

That’s been a way of doing interviews in the Valley for at least 20 years if not longer

That was just what I was thinking. This approach will have the same issues that materialized views have as well

In a lot of companies the root cause of this kind of thing is not being willing to spend the kind of money needed to achieve the desired result

You need to be honest with yourself about whether you can actually afford what you what to do.

The other side is it’s not unusual to see a company getting bled by an entrenched third party

Whichever case you are in, start small and prove the value with something tangible