I think the human variable is that you need to know enough to be able to ask the right questions about a subject while not knowing enough about the subject to learn something from the answers.
Because of this, I would assume it is better for people who have interest with more breadth than depth and less impressive to those who have interest that are narrow but very deep.
It seems obvious to me the polymath gains much more from language models than the single minded subject expert trying to dig the deepest hole.
Also, the single minded subject expert is randomly at the mercy of what is in the training data much more in a way than the polymath when all the use is summed up.
I am not a professional software engineer but LLMs have showed me how hard software engineering is at the overall level of a system.
For me, it feels like being a magic skilled carpenter with the ability to build a giant building, but with no idea what architects do to make blue prints.
Just end up building a useless mess of wood and nails that eventually gets burned down.
I am actually not impressed by the new o1 at all. I think we might be in denial of how progress is slowing down.
Runway is $35 a month to generate 10 second clips and you really get very few generations for that. $95 a month for unlimited 10 second clips.
I love art and experimental film. I really was excited for Sora but it will need what feels like unlimited generation to explore what it can do . That is going to cost an arm and a leg for the compute.
Something about video especially seems like it will need to be ran locally to really work. Pay a monthly fee for the model that can run as much as you want with your own compute.
Kai-Fu Lee's AI Superpowers is more relevant than ever.
The rich west will be in the lead for awhile and then get tiktok-ed.
The lead is just not really worth that much in the long run.
There is probably an advantage gained at some point in all this of being a developing country too that doesn't need to bother automating all these middle management and bullshit jobs they don't have.
Claude can make some interesting guitar tabs if you prompt it to transcribe an instrument/music that wouldn't normally be something a rock guitar player would be influenced by.
It is like saying the paint brush and canvas lack creativity. Creativity is not a property of the tool, it is a property of the artist.
We also have a very poor understanding of human creativity from selection bias.
Last weekend I found a book at the library that was Picasso's drawings 1966 to 1968. There must have been 1000-1500 drawings in this book. Many were just half finished scribbles.
The average person seems to believe though that the master artist only produces masterpieces because they didn't bother to look at all the crap.
You are probably partially right but there are many levels to this game.
Microstrategy is also running a pyramid scheme. Surely, there are also hedge funds in the space playing all kinds of games.
It is interesting how the digital Yuan is rolling out right now as part of HarmonyOS NEXT while the stupid west waste time with these digital currencies that can't function well as actual currency.
At the highest level, I suspect this is a brilliant game of currency Kung Fu.
