Wanted to add a preface: Thank you for your time on this article, I appreciate your perspective and experience, hoping you can help refine and reign in my bull case.
Where do you expect NVDA's forward and current eps to land? What revenue drop off are you expecting in late 2025/2026. Part of my bull case for NVDA, continuing, is it's very reasonable multiple on insane revenue. An leveling off can be expected, but I still feel bullish on it hitting $200+ (5 Trillion market cap? on ~195B revenue for Fiscal year 2026 (calendar 2025) at 33 EPS) based on this years revenue according to their guidance and the guidance of the hyperscalers spending. Finding a sell point is a whole different matter to being actively short. I can see the case to take some profits, hard for me to go short, especially in an inflationary environment (tariffs, electric energy, bullying for lower US interest rates).
The scale of production of Grace Hopper and Blackwell amaze me, 800k units of Blackwell coming out this quarter, is there even production room for AMD to get their chips made? (Looking at the new chip factories in Arizona)
R1 might be nice for reducing llm inferencing costs, unsure about the local llama one's accuracy (couldnt get it to correctly spit out the NFL teams and their associated conferences, kept mixing NFL with Euro Football) but I still want to train YOLO vision models on faster chips like A100's vs T4 (4-5x multiples in speed for me).
Lastly, if the Robot/Autonomous vehicle ML wave hits within the next year, (First drones and cars -> factories -> humanoids) I think this compute demand can sustain NVDA compute demand.
The real mystery is how we power all this within 2 years...
* This is not financial advice and some of my numbers might be a little off, still refining my model and verifying sources and numbers
I can’t really do the career or manager interaction stuff well because I don’t care about it personally and I don’t have any problems myself with my manager being incompetent or changing all the times.
I think that’s correlated with my somewhat unintentional success, but “have a better manager” or “don’t get reorged by directors playing game of thrones” isn’t actionable advice.
What I am good at is technical stuff, so if I have a person that is 1. technically competent and with the right attitude (IYKYK) and 2. good and technical manager then I and they do very well. But that’s very situational and also the technical stuff is very company specific.
I don’t know about you but exercise is one of my most enjoyable parts of my day. Yoga, walking, biking, dancing, swimming are all really enjoyable. Don’t push yourself hard, just go through the motions.
iPad Pro got it in spring 2021, so an M2 refresh seems likely too. October event along with an M2 MacBook Pro refresh? Or maybe not until spring 2023.
Another comment mentions RAM capabilities. Unfortunately that’s tied to the storage tiers instead of being something you can pick separately, so if you want 16 GB of RAM you have to buy the 1 TB or 2 TB models. Meaning for a 12.9” iPad Pro, if you want 16 GB you’re looking at an $1800 tablet. Not ideal.
I believe it does! It was remote during covid, and I sorta dropped off, but I bet it's back in person! It's got really strong leaders and community around it.
i went up to a jobsite and asked for a job. learned framing.
im a quick study. and i had the benefit of a good teacher.
once i get a foothold of basic fundamental knowledge i supplement it with reading, just like i did when i wrote software professionally, and anything else.
What does an individual humans intelligence look like without the wisdom of institutions like family, extended family and community, schools, academys and conservatories, the public sphere, and their interpretations of the world.
I know a lot of my ability to organize the world and characterize objects comes from the organizational structures refined and propagated by these institutions
Its hard to enlighten your way into happiness when you have an infection. I think alot of “happiness” is based in health, physical, emotional, and the health of those you interact with. Atleast those are somewhat quantifiable ways to avoid needless suffering.
For equivalent levels of wealth, people who think less are usually happier. The reason thinking causes happiness is that thinking tends to cause wealth.
Where do you expect NVDA's forward and current eps to land? What revenue drop off are you expecting in late 2025/2026. Part of my bull case for NVDA, continuing, is it's very reasonable multiple on insane revenue. An leveling off can be expected, but I still feel bullish on it hitting $200+ (5 Trillion market cap? on ~195B revenue for Fiscal year 2026 (calendar 2025) at 33 EPS) based on this years revenue according to their guidance and the guidance of the hyperscalers spending. Finding a sell point is a whole different matter to being actively short. I can see the case to take some profits, hard for me to go short, especially in an inflationary environment (tariffs, electric energy, bullying for lower US interest rates).
The scale of production of Grace Hopper and Blackwell amaze me, 800k units of Blackwell coming out this quarter, is there even production room for AMD to get their chips made? (Looking at the new chip factories in Arizona)
R1 might be nice for reducing llm inferencing costs, unsure about the local llama one's accuracy (couldnt get it to correctly spit out the NFL teams and their associated conferences, kept mixing NFL with Euro Football) but I still want to train YOLO vision models on faster chips like A100's vs T4 (4-5x multiples in speed for me).
Lastly, if the Robot/Autonomous vehicle ML wave hits within the next year, (First drones and cars -> factories -> humanoids) I think this compute demand can sustain NVDA compute demand.
The real mystery is how we power all this within 2 years...
* This is not financial advice and some of my numbers might be a little off, still refining my model and verifying sources and numbers