you dont remember deepseek introducing reasoning and blowing benchmarks led by private american companies out of the water? with an api that was way cheaper? and then offered the model free in a chat based system online? and you were a big fan?
Isn't the fact that it produced similar performance about 70x more cheaply a breakthrough? In the same way that the Hall-Héroult process was a breakthrough. Not like we didn't have aluminum before 1886.
Many of the business models were good too but they had the timing wrong.
Petfoods.com IPO for about $300 million. $573 million adjusted for inflation.
Chewy is at a 14 billion market cap right now.
I think comparing LLMs and the dotcom bubble is just incredibly lazy and useless thinking. If anything , all previous bubbles show is what is not going to happen again.
> I think comparing LLMs and the dotcom bubble is just incredibly lazy and useless thinking. If anything , all previous bubbles show is what is not going to happen again.
Curious to hear more here. What is lazy about it? My general hypothesis is that ~95% of AI companies are overvalued by an order of magnitude or more and will end up with huge investor losses. But longer term (10+ years) many will end up being correctly valued at an order of magnitude above today's levels. This aligns perfectly with your pets.com/Chewy example.
Like when a relationship is obviously over. Some people enjoy the ending fleeting moments while others delude themselves that they just have to get over the hump and things will go back to normal.
I suspect a lot of the denial is from the 30 something CRUD app lottery winner. One of the smart kids all through school, graduated into a ripping CRUD app job market and then if they didn't even feel the 2022 downturn, they now see themselves as irreplaceable CRUD app genius. Something understandable since the environment has never signaled anything to the contrary until now.
My psychological reaction to what's going on is somehow pretty different.
I'm a systems/embedded/GUI dev with 25 years of C++ etc., and nearly every day I'm happy and grateful to be the last generation to get really proficient before AI tools made us all super dependant and lazy.
Don't get me wrong, I'm sure people will find other ways to remain productive and stand out from each other - just a new normal -, but I'm still glad all that mental exercise and experience can't be taken away from me.
I'm more compelled to figure out how I can contribute to making sure younger colleagues learn all the right stuff and treat their brains with self-respect than I feel any need to "save my own ass" or have any fears about the job changing.
You made me think of the role of mental effort/exercise. In parts of the western world, we are already experiencing a large increase in dementia/alzheimer and related. Most of it is because we are doing better with other killers like heart etc, and many cancers also. But is said that mental activity is important to stave off degenerative diseases of the brain. Could widespread AI trigger a dementia epidemic? It would be 30 years out, but still...
I remember back in the 90s there was somewhat of a backlash against the 303, which presumably was part of what Norman Cook was getting at with the name of the song mentioned on the top of this thread. Ironically - or perhaps deliberately - that track was peak unimaginative/tedious usage of the instrument, which is funny because he had also done some much more elegant takes in his Pizzaman project.
For me it never felt like the 303 ever got really overdone in mainstream electronic music. Certainly there was the riff from Pump Panel's Confusion remix showing up all over the place, and there were a few tracks that got a high rotation on MTV like Daft Punk's Da Funk and Josh Wink's Higher State, but I don't think it was ever really ubiquitous outside of acid music, which is already a niche genre. Like, we never got 808s & Heartbreak for the 303.
It was definitely controversial inside the synth community, though, where hardcore analog and modular synth nerds scoffed at it being so limited and toy-like, and everybody - young and old - resented it becoming so expensive and sought-after, which in turn raised the prices of other vintage synths that according to the rumor mill could do a decent approximation if you programmed them just right.
Rebirth busted that market by making the basic essence of the sound available to everyone, and there were plenty of bad acid tracks that came out during that period, but I think that's also when the opportunity was there for it to really break through as a serious instrument. Later VSTs like Phoscyon took inspiration from mods like Devilfish and more elaborate clones like the FR-777, building on the 303 base to create the kinds of sounds that in the old days might have required a lot hacking/patching up of different instruments to construct. But by that point it was clear that the mainstream didn't really care.
I'm at work right now so don't have access to my music library to share specific favorite tracks, but there is still so much great music featuring the 303 coming out - it never stopped. There is stuff for people of every taste. If the more unsubtle stuff doesn't work for you, you might want to check out Mighty Force label, which has been putting out a bunch of IDM/braindance and pleasant electro music recently that sometimes has delightful uses of the 303. Also in the back of my mind for more IDM-ish and electro stuff are Analogical Force, Virtual Urban Records, HC Records, Nocta Numerica... There's a bunch more in that vein, plus all the usual suspects doing big room techno, hard party acid, all-hardware synth jams etc etc, but you probably need to dig in any case. I tend to find even the best albums only have one or two tracks that are to my taste, but everyone is different so it's great that there is so much out there.
I think it is how our expectations of the latest model change over time.
I expect to be completely blown away by GPT-5 in the first few days and then over time I will figure out the limitations of the model. Then I will be less impressed because you don't know what it can't do at first.
HN is just for insecure , miserable shitheads.