Demand for a magic box that solves your problems at a low cost will always remain extraordinarily high. Supply is the hard part, because it will never catch up.
Some people believed LLMs were that magic box for a time, and that time is coming to an end if the parent poster is correct.
Just had to deal with this with a company that had outsourced its support to "AI". Probably saved them a ton of money not having to employ those annoying humans. Problem is that for this particular company once you get to the point where you have to contact support you're almost certainly in a situation that no stochastic parrot has any hope of comprehending, let alone solving. I spend about an hour going round in circles with the parrot until I finally figured out what to tell it to get it to give up and connect me to a human, who fixed the problem in about five minutes.
The scary thing here is that I know how the parrots work, what they can't do, and how to get around them. The typical person calling will assume they've been helped by the parrot, which is just going through the motions without comprehending anything or fixing anything.
Well, the history of cloud computing shows that infrastructure usually becomes cheaper over time. But it’s still unclear whether this rule applies to reasoning models.
Honestly that’s the trap that’s increasingly looking like it will blow up this whole thing. Nobody can point to any viable revenue pathway that justifies the amount of capital investment underway, all while folks are increasingly slamming the brakes on things.
Theres an extremely ugly financial picture developing that those with full blown AI psychosis appear unable, or simply are unwilling, to see.
Of course they can. They're going to sell ads and subscriptions. Both of which are going to make bank. That their service is wildly oversubscribed and hence expensive is not an indication that they're in economic trouble.
Ads are a zero sum game where there’s only so much ad money to go around. AI doesn’t grow the pot. Google isn’t going to lose the ad game, it would destroy them. Google got scooped early on with AI search but is roaring back now.
Also consumers won’t pay high amounts for subscriptions, that’s enterprise territory which doesn’t tolerate ads. And these are the folks now slamming the brakes on spending.
Net, “ad revenue” is not even close to a viable plan to save the present train from spectacularly flying off the tracks.
ChatGPT has like a billion weekly users that are giving them a massive amount of data. Everyone is going to want to advertise with them.
Enterprise isn't slamming the breaks on spending. At worst they've transitioned from spending like drunken sailors to spending like mildly inebriated sailors. Every single white collar worker is still going to have an AI subscription. And for people like programmers they'll still spend $1k on them.
Reminds me of the theory that insects like flies spontaneously emerge from decaying matter and dung. I wonder what magical thoughts we're taking for granted today.
The draft/promaja. In Eastern Europe people genuinely think that if you leave two windows open you'll get various diseases like cold/flu/headache/ear pain/etc.
I've tried to understand this belief. So if you stand outside and it's windy, that's perfectly fine. But if you're inside, and you open two windows, that's deadly, even if there's no draft to be felt. I think some people think it's even more deadly if you can't feel it.
Being cold weakens your immune system. Draft air increases heat loss. There is nothing complex to understand. Outside you would wear a scarf or other appropriate clothing to not feel cold.
That‘s one of the biggest health myths around. Cold weather does NOT weaken your immune system AT ALL (except if you‘re actually hypothermic, which is very different from just feeling uncomfortable). It’s the CONDITIONS that RESULT from cold weather that actually cause those infections to ramp up in winter (think more people staying inside in enclosed spaces).
Thank you. The real myth is the idea that it's a myth cold weather doesn't cause colds.
Cold, drier air in contact with your mucus membranes lowers your defenses against viruses. It's that basic. In just regular cold air -- not hypothermia.
Thank you! It always was astounding to me how people could argue with so much vigor and conviction that something as complicated as the immune system could not possibly be affected by something as basic as temperature changes.
I'm not a biologist / epidemiologist but maybe the mutation of flu strains are synched up with this annual human behavior such that by the end of the winter most everyone has developed immunity for the current strains. By the next winter the mutations have happened again and the cycle repeats.
I'd love for this random thought to be confirmed / corrected.
for that to be true, the flu would be have to be more than than a unicellular organism in order to know what seasons are. do you have a proposal for how that would work? I'm sure there's a Nobel prize for you ($1 million dollars!) if you have something.
I don't know about colds and stuff, but I have a knee that's very sensitive and starts hurting from drafts (fans and AC blowing also triggers it, and cold and humidity makes it worse also, so it fluctuates quite a bit through the year). Being outside on a windy day doesn't have this effect.
Oh yeah, I remember The Draft, killer of Man, slayer of the innocent and bane of humanity since the dawn of time. I have been suffering from migraine attacks since childhood, and every time I complained about headaches it was attributed to draft. I knew that I had not been hit by draft, but that did not matter. It even made me afraid of The Draft for a time until I noticed that draft had no negative effects on me. And it wasn't regular headache either because regular headache medication like Aspirin had no effect on me. It took until early adulthood to finally get diagnosed as having migraines. (for those who wonder how the diagnostic process works, you get a questionnaire and if you answer three out of five questions correctly the doctor is like "congratulations, you have migraine, here are your triptans")
Thinking back, there was a lot of other bullshit I was told as a child that adults believed, but that seemed wrong to me:
- Tongue map, the idea that certain tastes can only be felt on certain regions of the tongue, even got taught that one in school in 5th grade. I never experienced that sensation, it always felt like every region of my tongue can sense any taste. The teacher went as far having us apply different tasting substances to different regions to "experience and confirm" the lesson. I still could not feel it, which makes it really scary to think how indoctrination can override what one's own sense tell you. Either everyone else was just going along with the BS, or they successfully had gaslighted themselves into believing the lesson.
- The idea that people on Columbus's time thought the earth was flat. How could he ever have gotten enough funding and personnel for what would have been seen as a suicide mission?
- The Great Wall of China being visible from space. Sure, it's really long, but it's quite narrow. So why would this structure specifically be the only man-made structure visible from space? I guess it depends on one's definition of "space", but then it is not the only mman-made structure visible from "space", and as such nothing special in that regard.
There is probably more stuff that I can't think of right now.
Opening one window makes a house a closed end tube. Opening two makes it open ended and lowers static pressure that airflow must overcome significantly. Walking out tend to increase your metabolism so standing outside and inside are different. It doesn't sound so stupid to me especially considering it's a medieval rule of thumb.
In the Mediterranean, people think if you swim just after eating you’ll get a “digestion shock”, fall unconscious, and drown. You need to wait two hours after lunch.
I strongly suspect the rumor was started by parents wanting kids to leave them alone for a nap, but it’s extremely extended. Somehow showers don’t count.
Nope. The shock is a medical possibility if you accidentally fall in Arctic water or something like that, but it’s not something that will come up in a swimming pool scenario unless you’re doing one of those influencer ice baths or something of the sort.
It’s mainly caused by extreme sudden temperature change, not much to do with the stomach.
Funnily enough, even medical pages in Spain will talk at length about the medical phenomenon without mentioning that little detail.
> Elon Musk is a genius and not just an obnoxious narcissist who got lucky with the startup lottery
There's an undeniable truth that Musk had quite a unique talent: he could find and fund people to run outrageous startups and make them work.
The moment he tries to run anything himself, or have a say in anything, it turns out to be shit. And this has become worse over the past several years.
It's TSMC and Taiwanese state policy is to lag the US fabs bu couple of years as they don't want to lose their strategic importance and their protection that comes with it.
It's unfortunate that people seem to be prejudiced against Wolfram at this point, when the field has a lot to explore and learn from. Cellular automata are so powerful, yet so conceptually simple, it wouldn't surprise me if it did have revelations for more fundamental concepts of the universe.
What if the fundamentals of the universe are so simple it'd shock us, we just haven't looked at it from the right perspective yet, and we're over-complicating it?
People should be able to separate the merits of the work from the worker but people didn't just randomly decide to not like Wolfram. He is a narcissist of the highest order.
But researcher? Does he actually research anything? He just claims lots of things. He is half-way to being a fiction author, just that he would never acknowledge that.
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