Presumably ASML can increase production if demand is high enough the question is over what time frame. 5 years seems plausible to me but I honestly don't know what that number is.
Yes. And the fab companies and their suppliers are deliberately and wisely slow to scale up production to meet short term changes in demand. They've seen the history of the semiconductor industry, it's constant boom and bust cycles. But they have the highest op-ex costs of anyone. So when the party's over they are the ones who pay for it the most.
This is for good reason though. You want to overproduce significantly in ordinary times so that if there is a big negative shock you will still be able to produce enough to feed everyone merely by not destroying the excess anymore.
But in a pure market that would mean that during overproduction times, prices should be low. Which they artificially aren't through industry price fixing.
The result that free markets are Prato optimal, though, requires conditions like low barriers to entry, perfect information, and low cost transactions… none of which seem very well met in the case of agriculture.
That's a nice bit of trivia but it doesn't really affect the comment you're replying to. It's still food, full of flavor and calories, and able to be used by a home cook (by making a pie).
If you researched this regulation even a little, you'd see the crops are rarely destroyed. They are far more often exported, diverted to secondary markets, donated, or carried-over into next-season's stock.
It's interesting to me how people are quick to comment about things they know nothing about...
> It's still food, full of flavor and calories
Tart cherries have about 1-2 calories per cherry, and do not taste good without a lot of sugar. That's why they are used in commercial processing, not generally sold as a fruit in grocery stores.
Coming back later, I realized earlier I looked up the calories but I didn't compare them to anything else. So while tart cherries "only" have 50 calories per 100g, sweet cherries are up around 60, not very different. An apple also has about 50-60 per 100g. So does an orange.
Fruit isn't super dense in calories to begin with because it has so much water, but it's still a meaningful amount, and tart cherries are pretty standard among fruit.
So we're moving goalposts? Where did I say people in need don't need any fruit?
People in need don't need single/one calorie tart cherries that are rarely eaten on their own. Consuming tart cherries typically involves processing that is more costly in terms of ingredients and time than simply using the pre-processed versions. Tart cherries are sometimes donated and are rarely destroyed.
Which argument will you come up with next?
You've bounced all over the place in this thread. Just let it rest...
> So we're moving goalposts? Where did I say people in need don't need any fruit?
You gave calories as a reason people don't need this fruit.
But that logic would apply to almost fruit.
So I said it would be bad to say people in need don't need fruit, while pointing out that contrast. I'm not accusing you of thinking that, I'm accusing you of using flawed logic.
> People in need don't need single/one calorie tart cherries
There's plenty of calories in a reasonable serving, and again that argument would apply to almost any fruit. It's like complaining about a single blueberry having too few calories.
> are rarely eaten on their own. Consuming tart cherries typically involves processing that is more costly in terms of ingredients and time than simply using the pre-processed versions.
They can cook with them. Lots of things are rarely eaten on their own and need to be processed, costing more ingredients and time than the pre-processed form. This includes flour!
> Tart cherries are sometimes donated and are rarely destroyed.
This is true and has nothing to do with my point.
> Which argument will you come up with next?
If you bring up a new reason to imply that donating tart cherries is unreasonable (even though it does happen!), I might disagree with that reason. Otherwise I have had one single argument and it hasn't changed: Donating tart cherries is a good idea.
I don't know why you're so fixated on whether people eat something directly. That doesn't affect what all2 was saying or what voxl was saying or what anyone else has been saying, but you keep acting like it does.
So you understood the crop we're discussing is rarely destroyed - and more often donated, diverted to secondary markets (ie. sold in grocery stores), or exported - yet still felt compelled to say a home cook could use them?
What was even the point of your snarky comment then?
> So you understood the crop we're discussing is rarely destroyed - and more often donated, diverted to secondary markets (ie. sold in grocery stores), or exported - yet still felt compelled to say a home cook could use them?
In the context of someone talking about home cooks using them, and you acting like "People do not eat tart cherries directly." is a counterargument, yes I felt compelled to correct that.
The incorrect thing you were implying had nothing to do with how often they're actually destroyed. So why would that stop me?
People do not eat tart cherries directly. The overwhelming majority of people will never process them into something edible either.
"People in need" are not going to spend time and money processing tart cherries into juice concentrate or pie filling... especially when a can of either is cheaper than the raw ingredients to make your own.
Your point is ridiculous, absurd and pedantic beyond any reasonable purpose.
Most of what you are saying is correct, but I feel the need to respond to your far too many repeated assertions that "People do not eat tart cherries directly": Except for when they do!
I grow several varieties of sour cherries in my yard, and frequently use them whole and without further processing. Usually I use them in a recipe like this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clafoutis. Sometimes I pit them first, sometimes I don't. Sometimes I'll even happily snack on them raw.
No, like most small fruit you aren't going eat them because you are desperate for calories. But they actually aren't any harder to prepare or use than lots of other tasty things that people traditionally grow.
Regardless of your political beliefs I would hope you could agree that using arable land for solar power is dumb. Denmark is almost entirely arable land and relatively small to boot so they should be using more compact power sources.
Yes, but the reason we incentivized ethanol production is to not lose the productive capacity for corn in case we need it to feed people. Having a significant excess of food production capability is incredibly important to long term stability. You really can't overstate the importance of food production capacity.
It's a hell of a lot less dumb than growing crops for biofuel on it, to start. And it's not even an either/or situation, you can do both on the same piece of land. I think there is plenty of 'arable' land for which the most productive thing it could be doing is solar power.
Agreed. I'm very pro-solar but there should be incentives for residential solar and solar on commercial buildings first. Covering up farmland and natural environments should be a last resort.
It’s the same problem people have with Google. If they ban you for some AI hallucinated reason you have no recourse other than going viral on Hacker News.
I haven't seen a single case of that happening with Anthropic yet. Every time someone has gotten banned it's because they either used third party harnesses which went to great lengths to impersonate claude code (obvious evasion), or because they set things up so it maxxed out their usage 24/7.
I'll change my mind when I see otherwise.
And this isn't being positive about Anthropic support or their treatment of users, as I too have seen lots of people here getting billed by them for stuff they never paid for, blatant fraud. That's even worse than Google. I'm only talking about getting banned for usage.
I did read them but I interpreted the topic of this thread to be Anthropic's vague approach to compliance enforcement not specifically how claude -p is used and interpreted by Anthropic.
I mean this is by design? It makes pirates more likely to get malware, and thus normal people more likely to pay for MS products rather than pirate? You may think its immoral but the incentives line up.
I don't think it's some conspiracy to make anyone more likely to get malware. Instead it's that for their business model of mostly being used on business PCs where the same dozen tools are installed all over the world they can be overzelous in protection and it is what most customers want. Really, they should leave the "piracy is malware" thing in defender, it should just be off by default if your PC isn't connected to a domain or setup as "work PC".
While I'm definitely concerned that AI is a massive driver of centralization of power, at least in theory being able to do far more things in the space of "things physics admits to be possible" is massively wealth enhancing. That is literally how we have gotten from the pre-industrial world to today.
Controversially I'd argue that there is likely an optimal and stable level of technological advancement which we would be wise to not to cross. That said, we are human so we will, I'd just rather it happened in a couple hundred years rather than a decade or two.
For example, it's hard to imagine an AI which gives us the capability to cure cancer, but doesn't give us the capability to create target super viruses.
I had Opus 4.6 start analyzing the binary structure of a parquet file because it was confused about the python environment it was developing in and couldn't use normal methods for whatever reason. It successfully decoded the schema and wrote working code afterwards lol.
Didn't one of the PQC candidates get found to have a fatal classical vulnerability? Are we confident we won't find any future oopsies like that with the current PQC candidates?
The whole point of the competition is to see if anybody can cryptanalyze the contestants. I think part of what's happening here is that people have put all PQC constructions in bucket, as if they shared an underlying technology or theory, so that a break in one calls all of them into question. That is in fact not at all the case. PQC is not a "kind" of cryptography. It's a functional attribute of many different kinds of cryptography.
The algorithm everyone tends to be thinking of when they bring this up has literally nothing to do with any cryptography used anywhere ever; it was wildly novel, and it was interesting only because it (1) had really nice ergonomics and (2) failed spectacularly.
Yeah I get that, what I am really asking is that I know in my field, I can quickly get a vibe as to whether certain new work is good or not so good, and where any bugaboos are likely to be. For those who know PQC like I know economics, do they believe at this point that the algorithms have been analyzed successfully to a level comparable to DH or RSA? Or is this really gonna be a rush job under the gun because we have no choice?
Lattice cryptography was a contender alongside curves as a successor to RSA. It's not new. The specific lattice constructions we looked at during NIST PQC were new iterations on it, but so was Curve25519 when it was introduced. It's extremely not a rush job.
The elephant in the room in these conversations is Daniel Bernstein and the shade he has been casting on MLKEM for the last few years. The things I think you should remember about that particular elephant are (1) that he's cited SIDH as a reason to be suspicious of MLKEM, which indicates that he thinks you're an idiot, and (2) that he himself participated in the NIST PQC KEM contest with a lattice construction.
Bernstein's ego is at a level where he thinks most other people are idiots (not without some justification), that's been clear for decades. What are you hinting at?
I'm not saying anything about his ego or trying to psychoanalyze him. I'm saying: he attempted to get a lattice scheme standardized under the NIST PQC contest, and now fiercely opposes the standard that was chosen instead.
SIKE made it all the way to round 3. It failed spectacularly, but it happened rather abruptly. In one sense it wasn't surprising because of its novelty, but the actual attack was somewhat surprising--nobody was predicting it would crumble so thoroughly so quickly. Notably, the approach undergirding it is still thought secure; it was the particular details that caused it to fail.
It's hubris to say there are no questions, especially for key exchange. The general classes of mathematical problems for PQC seem robust, but that's generally not how crypto systems fail. They fail in the details, both algorithmically and in implementation gotchas.
From a security engineering perspective, there's no persuasive reason to avoid general adoption of, e.g., the NIST selections and related approaches. But when people suggest not to use hybrid schemes because the PQC selections are clearly robust on their own, well then reasonable people can disagree. Because, again, the devil is in the details.
The need to proclaim "no questions" feels more like a reaction to lay skepticism and potential FUD, for fear it will slow the adoption of PQC. But that's a social issue, and imbibing that urge may cause security engineers to let their guard down.
What's your point? SIKE has literally nothing to do with MLKEM. There is no relationship between the algorithms. Essentially everybody working on PQC, including Bernstein himself, have converged on lattices, which, again, were a competitor to curves as a successor to RSA --- they are old.
SIKE: not lattices. Literally moon math. Do you understand how SIKE/SIDH works? It's fucking wild.
I'm going to keep saying this: you know the discussion is fully off the rails when people bring SIKE/SIDH into it as evidence against MLKEM.
You may not have any questions about the security of ML-KEM, but many people do. See, for example, DJB's compilation of such doubts from the IETF WG: https://blog.cr.yp.to/20260221-structure.html
These doubts may not be the kind curious onlookers have in mind, but to say there are no doubts among researchers and practitioners is a misrepresentation. In fact, you're flatly contradicting what DJB has said on the matter:
> SIKE is not an isolated example: https://cr.yp.to/papers.html#qrcsp shows that 48% of the 69 round-1 submissions to the NIST competition have been broken by now.
Unqualified assurances is what you hear from a salesman. You're trying to sell people on PQC. There's no reason to believe ML-KEM is a lemon, but you're effectively saying, "it's the last KEX scheme we'll ever need", and that's just not honest from an engineering point of view, even if it's what people need to hear.
I think you just gave away the game. To the extent I believe a CRQC is imminent, I suppose I am "trying to sell people on PQC". But then, so is Daniel Bernstein, your only cryptographically authoritative cite to your concern. Bernstein's problem isn't that we're rushing to PQC. It's that we didn't pick his personal lattice proposal.
And, if we're on the subject of how trustworthy Bernstein's concerns are, I'll note again: in his own writing about the potential frailty of MLKEM, he cites SIKE, because, again, he thinks you're too dumb to understand the difference between a module lattice and a generic lattice.
Finally, I'm going to keep saying this until I don't have to say it anymore: PQC is not a "kind" of cryptography. It doesn't mean anything that N% of the Round 1 submissions to the NIST PQC Contest were cryptanalyzed. Multivariate quadratic equation cryptography, supersingular isogeny cryptography, and F_2^128 code-based cryptography are not related to each other. The point of the contest was for that to happen.
It's the same situation with classical encryption. It's not uncommon for a candidate algorithm [to be discovered ] to be broken during the selection process.
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