Given the details mentioned (9 guard deaths) the "unconfirmed reports" is probably referring to the x post[1] mentioned in the peoplenewstoday.com article. Personally word not somehow getting out of dozens of people being shot seems hard to believe, though not impossible.
Prior reserve currency failures involved currency collapses. I think Gresham accounts for this. Looking at the particular mechanisms of collapse, I think they all involve a failed transition to fiat. Can you name another example of a currency that survived the transition to pure fiat (i.e. not backed by metals in any respect)? The dollar did this in the 70s and continued to increase its dominance in the decades that followed. In all cases of prior world currencies, I don't think any survived the transition to pure fiat. Sure, a theoretical dollar collapse could spell a return to gold or silver, but you'd have to make a case for total collapse, rather than just the dollar being eclipsed by some other currency.
I agree the dollar is uniquely successful, but the Pound ended convertibility in 1931, and limped as a reserve currency into the 70s. While not a reserve currency, another example is Chinese currencies like the second zhiyuanchao going off silver convertibility, which lasted for a bit over 50 years.[1]
When the Dutch for example did try to go off a metallic standard it was essentially a last ditch effort as they were completely broke. The US on the other hand had the advantage of still controlling global trade/it's military, liquid markets and the petrodollar system. The dollar's floating exchange rate also served as a release valve, allowing devaluation to occur gradually over the decade that followed versus all at once.
Re a dollar collapse I see a gradual shift towards a more multipolar world with no clear singular reserve currency and no currency which eclipses the dollar as more likely than a collapse or eclipse. For example where the Americas still primarily transact in dollars, the Yuan becomes an increasing percentage of belt and road trade, and the Euro in it's sphere.
Thanks for a good reply with lots of interesting historical examples. I think your conclusion is sound. I suppose this is a likely counter scenario to my assertion that nothing will replace the dollar, but rather that it will be partially replaced by a little bit of everything over the course of decades.
Likewise, it's always good to think through different perspectives. For what it's worth there are definitely people who think it will take much longer than most expect, due to for example the creation and growth of US Stablecoins, China wanting to be an exporter more than wanting the Yuan to be a reserve currency, or greater relative weakness in other countries for example.
This was arguably largely offset by the actions of the treasury's increased short duration issuance (>1 Trillion in t-bills) combined with draw-downs of the reverse repo facility[1] instead of from banks. It's difficult to tell exactly how much money winds it's way into the economy without using proxies - for example credit spreads[2] or NFCI[3] which indicate loose conditions, which don't show much evidence of post 2022 QT's impact.
Or in other words the data seems to show the loosening effects were more powerful than the tightening ones. Now that the RRP has been drawn down balance sheet growth will likely occur.
I think the main problem is a YouTube "customer" is there because they're looking for long form content, and someone looking for sort videos is probably already either a TikTok or Instagram user with no particular reason to switch.
I drive a Corolla (great highway mileage!) and will probably get something larger the next time I buy because it's smaller than most everything else on the road, both in terms of visibility and collisions. My person tightwad math changed after a drunk driver crossed the median and took off a mirror. If I did have children this would doubly be a concern, even if I could manage to fit the car seat and stroller in the Corolla.
As an aside the base Corolla engine for the current gen was formerly the 139HP 1.8L 2ZR-FAE and the 2L was limited to the "sporty" models but this was dropped at some point. The power figures are somewhat deceptive, it does a very good impression of a v6 under 3000RPM or so, but if you need to wind it out to merge on the highway there's not much there unlike a early 00s VTEC Honda or something.
Consider for example Orch OR theory. If it or something like it were to be accurate, the brain would not "obey physical laws that can be described by mathematics".
Orch OR is probably wrong, but the broader point is that we still don’t know which physical processes are necessary for cognition. Until we do, claims of definitive brain simulability are premature.
It seems like the brain "just" being a giant number of neurons is an assumption. As I understand it's still an area of active research, for example the role of glial cells. The complete function may or may not be pen and paper-able.
There are indeed many people trying to justify this magical thinking by seeking something, anything in the brain that is out of the ordinary. They've been unsuccessful so far.
Penrose comes to mind, he will die on the hill that the brain involves quantum computations somehow, to explain his dualist position of "the soul being the entity responsible for deciding how the quantum states within the brain collapse, hence somehow controlling the body" (I am grossly simplifying). But even if that was the case, if the brain did involve quantum computations, those are still, well, computable. They just involve some amount of randomness, but so what? To continue with grandparent's experiment, you'd have to replace biological neurons with tiny quantum computer neurons instead, but the gist is the same.
You wouldn't even need quantum computer neurons. We can simulate quantum nature on normal circuits, albeit not very efficiently. But for the experiment this wouldn't matter. The only important thing would be that you can measure it, which in turn would allow you to replicate it in some non-human circuit. And if you fundamentally can't measure this aspect for some weird reason, you will once again reach the same conclusion as above.
You can simulate it, but you usually use PRNG to decide how your simulated wave function "collapses". So in the spirit of the original thought experiment, I felt it more adequate to replace the quantum part (if it even exists) by another actually quantum part. But indeed, using fake quantum shouldn't change a thing.
It could well be the case that the brain can be simulated, but presently we don't know exactly what variables/components must be simulated. Does ongoing neuroplasticity for example need to be a component of simulation? Is there some as of yet unknown causal mechanisms or interactions that may be essential?
None of those examples cannot be done on pen and paper or otherwise simulated with a different medium, though.
AFAICT, your comment above would need some mechanism that is physically impossible and incalculable to make the argument, and then somehow have that happen in a human brain despite being physically impossible and incalculable.
>We need to change our politics to redirect taxation and spending to achieve a better society.
Unfortunately, I'm not sure there's much on the pie chart to redirect percentage wise. About 60% goes to non-discretionary programs like Social Security and Medicaid, and 13% is interest expense. While "non-discretionary" programs can potentially be cut, doing so is politically toxic and arguably counter to the goal of a better society.
Of the remaining discretionary portion half is programs like veterans benefits, transportation, education, income security and health (in order of size), and half military.
FY2025 spending in total was 3% over FY2024, with interest expense, social security and medicare having made up most of the increase ($249 billion)[1], and likely will for the foreseeable future[2] in part due to how many baby boomers are entering retirement years.
Assuming you cut military spending in half you'd free up only about 6% of federal spending. Moving the needle more than this requires either cutting programs and benefits, improving efficiency of existing spend (like for healthcare) or raising more revenue via taxes or inflation. All of this is potentially possible, but the path of least resistance is probably inflation.
I think the biggest lever is completely overhauling healthcare. The USA is very inefficient, and for subpar outcomes. In practice, the federal government already pays for the neediest of patients - the elderly, the at-risk children, the poor, and veterans. Whereas insurance rakes in profits from the healthiest working age people. Given aging, and the impossibility of growing faster than the GDP forever, we'll have to deal with this sooner or later. Drug spending, often the boogeyman, is less than 7% of the overall healthcare budget.
There is massive waste in our military spending due to the pork-barrel nature of many contracts. That'd be second big bucket I'd reform.
I think you're also right that inflation will ultimately take care of the budget deficit. The trick is to avoid hyperinflation and punitive interest rates that usually come along for the ride.
I would also encourage migration of highly skilled workers to help pay for an aging population of boomers. Let's increase our taxpayer base!
I am for higher rates of taxation on capital gains over $1.5M or so, that'll also help avoid a stock market bubble to some extent. One can close various loopholes while at it.
I am mostly arguing for policy changes to redistribute more equitably. I would make the "charity" status of college commensurate with the amount of financial aid given to students and the absolute cost of tuition for example., for example. I am against student loan forgiveness for various reasons - it's out of topic for this thread but happy to expand if interested.
Are we even sure we understand the hardware? My understanding is even that is contested, for example orchestrated objective reduction, holonomic brain theory or GVF theory.
Yep. I've seen quite a few free-to-play gacha games of the "Dress up your pretty princess in cool clothes and do cute activities in a relaxing, no-stress world." variety that have serious anticheat. There's no leaderboard, no multiplayer, it's totally singleplayer.
Why the serious anticheat? To try to prevent you from cheating your way to possession of all the cool clothes for your pretty princess.
[1]https://x.com/ShengXue_ca/status/2015122407736963455
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