If you want to go off trying to predict the cycle I’d suspect ag/weather tech. Political complexity aside it appears to be the biggest thing we’ll need to work on in the coming decades if we want to sustain the planet’s carrying capacity.
Probably more likely though to be something novel that few took seriously before it demonstrates utility. And this is the issue for QC, we already know what it’s useful for: a handful of niche search algorithms. It’s a bit like fusion in that even if you work out the (very significant) engineering issues you’re left with something that while useful is far from transformative.
There is no official statement about this issue but you can search for user reports like "M2 MacBook Air black screen" or something similar. It is not uncommon.
In older versions of macOS you can simply try two things:
* Press Esc in locking screen, or
* Press "Sleep" from the menu bar icon and then press Esc immediately
If the machine crashes/reboots, the sensor is bad and it needs to be replaced. Apple Store replaces the whole display assembly.
Because if you're going to carry, you should choose something that's safe to carry with a round chambered (i.e. not a Sig P320). There are countless videos showing real-world examples of defensive handgun use. One common thread is that there's virtually no time between when you realize you're going to need your sidearm and when you need it. The extra second it takes to rack the slide and chamber a round can be the difference between surviving the encounter and not.
> One common thread is that there's virtually no time between when you realize you're going to need your sidearm and when you need it.
I would be surprised if this is true for the majority of situations. I'm sure there are situations where you have very little time, but also many situations where the additional time it would take to chamber a round is negligible.
In addition to the lost time, you'll have a hard time racking the slide from the adrenaline dump. Also, the bad guys always have first-movers advantage and you're always playing catch up.
After watching thousands of violent encounters on John Correia's "Active Self Protection" channel, I agree that round-in-the-chamber is absolutely necessary if you're carrying for self protection.
Most states prevent you from drawing without firing, because it is considered brandishing / threatening.
So you either draw and fire and call the police and tell them what happened, or you don't and just... deal with the consequences of whatever happened instead.
>Most states prevent you from drawing without firing, because it is considered brandishing / threatening.
I'm not sure how many other states work this way, but in Florida, brandishing is considered non-deadly force as a matter of law[0]. So the standard for self-defense is different between brandishing and firing: deadly force like firing requires a higher degree of threat to be considered justified self-defense[1].
2. Could you have reasonably de-escalated (or were you the one who escalated to get here)?
3. Can you convince a jury (and the cops) that your life was in danger? If there are no witnesses, this is tough. Typically you're allowed to use deadly force only if you fear loss of life/limb. Yes, yes, plenty of cases where juries ruled in favor of the shooter when there was clearly no risk of loss of life/limb.
4. Do you have the relevant insurance to cover your legal defense costs? If not, you'll likely make a plea deal with the prosecutor even if you were clearly in the right.
I would say if the guy lunged at you with a knife and you drew your gun and he ran away, you'll be fine if there are witnesses.
I'm familiar with the idea of "brandishing" being illegal, but I looked it up anyway. I found https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Menacing which says "Self-defense is often explicitly given as an exception."
It seems like then it would be legal to draw a gun without firing if it was in self defense? I have a hard time believing that there are any cases where shooting someone in self defense would be legal, but scaring them away wouldn't.
This is not exactly what you’re referencing but I bring it up to show just how complicated things can be: Minnesota recently ruled that you do not have the right to use deadly force if you have the opportunity to escape.
And this is the crucial bit, quoting the article: “The court decided the principle also applies to people who merely use the threat of force — meaning one cannot pull a weapon in self-defense if there are other means to escape, even if the person is threatening them with death or bodily harm.”
"There are various situations in which brandishing a firearm may occur. For instance, pulling out a gun during an argument or altercation with another person could be considered brandishing. Additionally, waving or gesturing with a firearm in a manner that suggests aggression or hostility towards others may also constitute brandishing. It is crucial to understand that even if no shots are fired, and no physical harm is inflicted, the mere act of displaying a weapon in such circumstances can lead to serious legal consequences."
Which states don't have self-defense exceptions to brandishing laws? Note that shooting someone is also assault, but self-defense is an exception to assault.
I’m fine with a brandishing charge if it defuses the situation and ends the threat and I don’t have to kill anyone.
I would take almost any criminal charge over being forced to kill somebody.
If I hadn’t been willing to brandish at least once, I would have had to shoot to kill, and that sucks bad. Being in a gunfight is the last thing that I want besides being dead or severely injured.
From your careful word choice you know this but I'd like to draw attention to the specifics here. I'm not sure if it's actually soldered on but RAM is on-package like apple's M-series chips, unlike what used to be the case where soldering ram to the board was a choice made by the laptop mfgs.
Here's there's no choice to be made other than not using the chips. And unfortunately (although there are some benefits), it's probably not going to be just a few generations but a trend for high end processors going forward.
It is actually one of the few cases where I don't actually really care about independent upgradability. In my experience I find that I pretty much always upgrade my CPU and my RAM in tandem. New CPU architectures sometimes force it (e.g. need DDR5 instead of DDR4), and as long as you don't severely undersize your initial RAM choice I find that I run out of CPU headroom before I run out of RAM headroom.
So if there's performance gains to be had by co-locating RAM with the CPU in a single package, it makes sense to me to do so
> and as long as you don't severely undersize your initial RAM choice
That's the problem though. when dealing with used machines (because new ones are beyond your budget), you get cheaper hand me downs, and those are going to be of your undersized RAM variety. In the socketed days, you could get a five year old laptop, replace the existing RAM with the biggest sticks you cloud get your hands on, and get a few more years of life out of the machine. A laptop stuck at four gigs of ram these days isn't going to be great for much web browsing, but is also basically stuck at four gigs.
Devil's advocate, as with most LLM issues this applies to the meatbags that generated the source material as well. Quick example is asking someone to describe their favorite music and why they like it, and note the probable lack of reasoning on the `this is what I listened to as a teenager` axis.
Something as inherently subjective as personal preference doesn't seem like an ideal example to make that point. How could you expect to objectively evaluate something like "I enjoy songs in a minor scale" or "I hate country"?
The point is to illustrate the disconnect between stated reasoning and proximate cause.
Consider your typical country music enjoyer. Their fondness of the art, as it were, is far more a function of cultural coding during their formative years than a deliberate personal choice to savor the melodic twangs of a corncob banjo. The same goes for people who like classic rock, rap, etc. The people who `hate' country are likewise far more likely to do so out of oppositional cultural contempt, same as people who hate rap or those in the not so distant past who couldn't stand rock & roll.
This of course fails to account for higher-agency individuals who have developed their musical tastes, but that's a relatively small subset of the population at large.
Good point. When we try to explain why we're attracted to something or someone, what we do seems closer to modeling what we like to think about ourself. At the extreme, we're just story-telling about an estimation we like to think is true.
I largely agree! Humans are notoriously bad at doing what we call reasoning.
I also agree with the cousin comment that (paraphrased) “reasoning is the wrong question, we should be asking about how it adapts to novelty.” But most cybernetic systems meet that bar.
> You have a duty as a founder to make really good products and get them into people’s hands. You’re making God real in people’s lives when they experience that.
Something I've started to conceptualize is that being "galaxy brained" as described in this paragraph:
One of them is Peter Thiel, who has spoken about his evangelical leanings for more than a decade and who has lately shared his views on his faith with increasing frequency. “I believe in the resurrection of Christ,” he said in a 2020 talk. “The only good role model for us is Christ.” (In watching talk after talk of Thiel speaking about his faith, I found myself genuinely puzzled, not because Thiel lacks conviction but because his thoughts on the subject are so galaxy-brained that it seems like he’s playing a game of 3D chess that the rest of us are only catching up to: “When you don’t have a transcendent religious belief, you end up just looking around at other people. And that is the problem with our atheist liberal world. It is just the madness of crowds.”)
Is most often a way to spread propaganda, or believe whatever you want to. A great example of this is the "sin of empathy" talk that's been going around. There may be some sort of trolley problem sense that trying to help every ends up helping no one, but as soon as you try to like maximize that idea, the way long-termists talk about helping trillions of people in the future rather than millions of people now. You're just sort of intellectualizing your way into believing whatever you want to believe.
The basic explanation is probably the right explanation. Absent exigent circumstances, love your neighbor just means love your neighbor.
What’s your take on near-term stability for American immigrants in Europe? I was looking at options for moving last year but the work visa situation seemed fairly precarious (although that’s a relative thing in comparison with what may end up happening here in the US).
As someone who has been looking; the EU Blue Card through Germany seems pretty stable and straightforward, with a 21/27 month path to permanent residency, depending on language ability:
The politics there are a little concerning at the moment but should be stable for at least 4 years. With residency, the rest of the EU becomes a lot easier if things change.
I want to be vocal about it for third world country people like me.
If you own a home in your own country, please stay there. From my experience with EU it is not worth it. On the surface it looks crazy good. But west has their own share of problems.
The cultural mix is difficult, second class citizen is always going to be a thing. There won't be racism or anything like that. It just the aura of people change when they speak with natives vs non-natives.
Ask this important question before moving to EU: is it worth trading your family, culture, connection, and your ability to communicate for a foreign land where you are going to be second class citizen, your struggle will only give a glimmer of hope for your children?
Left EU for my home. Never returning there. The promise of paradise isn't appealing at all.
Thank you for the link. How is Germany looking RE economic stability for the next couple of years? I was looking into Sweden but even the Swedish citizens I know there are having a difficult time finding / keeping engineering jobs as the economy has been doing poorly.
My impression is there's some weakness from the auto industry struggling which is flooding the job market; but there's a lot of upside. They're investing big in a lot of new industries that don't even really exist in the US (energy related).
Rheinmetall and the rest of the defense industry seems like its set to really take off over the next few years, which even if you aren't eligible for (citizenship requirements), it'll lead to other industries needing labor though.
I'm not from there and don't follow it super closely so am not an expert, but that's kindof been my read on it.
For what its worth, this started because I struggle to find 2-3 jobs in the US per week worth applying for in my field. I can find 8-10 a day over there without much trouble (had several interviews, 2 final rounds, 1 "you weren't a fit for this role, but we really want to talk to you again in May").
> How is Germany looking RE economic stability for the next couple of years?
Not great. Its economic growth has stalled. European Commission forecasts GDP growth of 0.7 percent in 2025, the slowest in the EU. Since 2017, the German economy has grown by 1.6 percent, while the EU average has been 9.5 percent.
Personally I’m pushing my (Belgian) government hard to provide a streamlined path for American immigrants, especially tech workers.
In general, it’s easy, just highly bureaucratic. If you compare to what most other countries have to go through, getting a work visa as a skilled us citizen is quick.
As one of the many Americans who wants to contribute to a society whose values match their own, thank you. Is there somewhere to follow your efforts in that front?
A lot of it is small-scale lobbying, so not much to follow :)
If you want to support some of the efforts I'm pushing hard for, check out EU Inc: https://www.eu-inc.org/
Many entrepreneurs here know what the advantages are in the US compared to EU when it comes to startups etc and understand what needs to change. There's real willingness to get it done and the trump election has been fast-forwarding through so many of the steps, giving the EU the kick it needed to wake up.
All the momentum is there, now. I'm feeling super optimistic about Europe. But the recession will be hard to weather.
I would have loved to come work for imec but the only immediate internship budget they had was a studentship with accompanying stipend and visa. They told me it would have taken too long to sort out the employee route.
A member at an old makerspace needed extremely powerful custom glasses in addition to very large monitors, he had heart surgeries, diabetes, and probably other conditions I'm forgetting.
If I remember right, a teen he had an electronics related job that involved a lot of washing parts with some kind of nasty solvent with definitely an OSHA violation kind of safety.
It's unknown how many of the problems were directly caused by that, but he believed many of them were likely related.
I'm not a chemist, and I'm not a big fan of taking risks, so I just stay away from anything with chronic toxic effects if I can. There's usually very little benefit other than minor time savings anyway, outside of crazy specialists stuff.
Probably more likely though to be something novel that few took seriously before it demonstrates utility. And this is the issue for QC, we already know what it’s useful for: a handful of niche search algorithms. It’s a bit like fusion in that even if you work out the (very significant) engineering issues you’re left with something that while useful is far from transformative.