> I would be surprised if even 3% of aggregate production has moved out of China.

Let’s see....China is a export focused economy. Last year their stock crashed 30%. Their currency crashed 10%. The luxury sales in China crashed 30-70%, depending on sectors. New car sales fell 6%. There were discounts of 30% for new real estate projects in Golden September.

Yup, 30% of factories moving out of China seems possible

> But we can see today, a trade war won't happen

A trade war is already taking place. And will increase in scope very soon. And no likelihood of it stopping

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross: The US is still 'miles and miles' from a trade deal with China

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/24/commerce-secretary-wilbur-ro...

I'll go out on a limb and say that's all posturing. On both sides.

There is no way China will take the chance of losing its position as the manufacturing hub. They might throw a couple punches, but will make up sooner than a product release cycle.

US has no reason to attack China.

If China attacks US because US stopped giving China money, well, they should stop giving sooner rather than later