The analogy would hold if there were 2 or 3 calculator companies and all your calculations had to be sent to them.
If local models get good enough, I think it’s a very different scenario than engineers all over the world relying on central entities which have their own motives.
google/gemma-4-31B-it is honestly "good enough". It requires more than your current laptop for now, but it's not remotely inaccessible (especially if you're a SWE in the US)
It’s so incredibly frustrating the effort required to keep the site/app from funnelling my kids into low effort slop.
I like to use it with my kids (under age of 6) to search and find interesting videos with them. The algorithm combined with the TV apps’s UX makes it such a frustrating experience.
There is so much potential there, but searching for things like space videos inevitably funnels me into AI generated slop and conspiracies. Searching for upcoming movie trailers funnels me into completely fake trailers. It’s clear the platform is an engagement engine first and a knowledge base second.
Apple aren’t in the business of building chatbots to impress investors (other than some WWDC2024 vaporware they’d rather not talk about any more). They’re in the business of consumer hardware.
Consumers want iPhones and (if Apple are right) some form of AR glasses in the next decade. That’s their focus. There’s a huge amount of machine learning and inference that’s required to get those to work. But it’s under the hood and computed locally. Hence their chips. I don’t see what Apple have to gain by building a competitor to what OpenAI has to offer.
~25% of Apple's revenue came from services in FY25 (and 50% from iPhone, ~25% from other hardware). They made $415B in that year, so ~$100B from services alone!
Services revenue is mostly just 30% from App Store Sales. This means every time a user clicks a pro account for ChatGPT or Claude on their phone, Apple makes more money than they could make with a self deployed model.
You're not wrong that they collect a ton of rent off AI apps, rumours a few weeks back claimed $900m in fees last year with 75% of that just from OpenAI.
But services revenue is:
- their 36% share of Google Ads for being default search engine, about $21 billion/year of pure profit
- their IAP fees, court testimony reveals 75% profit margin
- their first-party subscriptions, there's an antitrust about iCloud that alleges 52% of iPhone users are on paid plans and that the profit margins are 80-ish percent!
Agreed, I’ve been a loyal iPhone user for a long time, and very few people I know use iMessage. I use it with my parents because they don’t have any other messenger, and they don’t even really know it’s iMessage, they just think of it as texting. Everyone I know is using something else for messages, whether it’s Discord, Instagram DMs, WhatsApp, or occasionally Telegram or Snapchat.
> Yeah, that just doesn't pass the simplest sniff tests. I barely use iMessage, and yet I'm an iPhone user.
A single anecdote isn't data. You're not a typical consumer.
The only major market where iPhone outsells Android (number of handsets) is the US, and it's because of iMessage. Android is 70% of the world market and dominates LatAm, Africa, and Asia.
Why are you comparing a single phone manufacturers market position to the market position of an entire OS?
iOS vs Android isn’t relevant when discussing hardware. It’s Apple vs Samsung etc. iOS doesn’t need majority market ownership for Apple to completely dominate their hardware competitors in a market.
In the US it's mostly iMessage, and that includes people who say it's not mostly iMessage.
iPhones are more expensive, on average, for a similar or worse experience. The thing that drives iphone sales is social. People want iPhones because their friends do, and that's a very good reason.
The biggest region in term of revenues for Apple revenues is all americas but it is still only around 43%, which means Apple still makes money from Africa, Europe, Asia and Ocenia combined than the whole american continent. So that is even less for the USA.
You are doing a lot of heavy lifting lumping Europe and Asia together, and inserting Africa and Oceana, which is so small Apple doesn't even report revenue for it.
North America is 43%
Europe is 27%
China 15%
Japan 7%
Rest of Asia: 8%
Africa, middle east, oceania effective round to 0%
Basically North America and Japan make up 50% of Apple's revenue, but are nowhere near 50% of global GDP or population.
Nobody against the fact that US a is their biggest market. That doesn't change the fact that the more than half of their revenue is made in areas where imessage is totally irrelevant.
It depends on your social circle obviously. I had a single person I used iMessage with no but we since switched to SMS. Not many people where I live have iphones.
I totally buy this as someone located in the US, but what is everybody else using? It can’t be WhatsApp? Is everyone sending all their connection graphdata to Meta?
A lot of SMBs use Instagram to connect to their clients, so Instagram build-in messenger is a default option for a lot of people (especially women) in many parts of the world.
Some places have regional messengers that are very entrenched, like Line in Japan or KakaoTalk in Korea.
WhatsApp is a default option in a large number of countries including most of Middle East, parts of Europe, Brazil, most of Africa, Southern Asia. To me it is surprising, too, because out of all messaging options WhatsApp seems like the least developed and least ergonomic.
And yes, this does mean that most people share whatever data Big Tech wants. They use Meta to talk to each other, auto-upload their photos to Google, click "accept" to every cookie banner so that thousands of no-name companies around the world know where they are and what they are doing at all times.
It’s WhatsApp. No one thinks about sending data to Meta. The world is much bigger than the HN bubble, where almost no one thinks about privacy implications.
Absolutely this. No one cares about privacy. 99,9% population has no clue how tech works. “Oh, it’s an app on my phone.” That’s what typical consumer understands. How text travels from one phone to other is something magical.
Got WhatsApp, because there is no other channel to communicate with customers. It’s literally used by everyone without exceptions. Really scary.
No one uses iMessage in my country. Yet iPhones are sought after. Some of us just really like iPhones for the experience - not everything is a conspiracy. People can have different tastes and are more free to choose than people on HN like to believe.
As these products mature people are going to see more of this stuff. These are the contours of the market. The technology is incredible but it’s still subservient to the economics of building products.
It’s the “why can’t Facebook just show me a chronological feed of people I follow”. Because it’s not in their interests to do so.
Yeah, and just like all social media platforms adopted short form video sooner or later they are going to give in to what consumers pay for (in attention or money). Right now it's anyone's guess what that might be in the context of software development.
I don’t think this is limited to coding. We’ll eventually see it across all products and services. It’s just a matter of how much customers are willing to accept.
Rooftop solar is incredibly popular here in Australia. I think it’s something like 33% of houses have it. We also have a great climate for it.
I have solar on my house and am seeing around 50% self sufficiency overall. Of course with this much saturation, the rate you get paid for feeding back to the grid is quickly dropping to zero. So self use is the game now.
The problem is now shifting to home batteries and storage. Because peak power household use times are in the evening when the sun is not shining.
Back when solar was much, much more expensive this sort of thing mattered. Now the panels have plunged in price so much, you just deploy more panels (cost of install and other central stuff is the same) and/or accept the longer payback period.
Cold climates do better than one might expect because the colder a solar panel is, the better it works.
>now the panels have plunged in price so much, you just deploy more panels
It's not really, the sun doesen't rise above the horizon for over a month where I live. quadrupling zero output is still zero. The country has massive renewable so by the time solar would generate something, electricity is already super cheap
They had Unreal Tournament 4 in development around 2018 but it never gained much traction in the pre-alpha phase. Once Fortnite blew up they seemed to just focus on that and their app store.
I’m a UX designer not a coder, but this is so bizarre to me because shouldn’t every project be doing something novel? Otherwise why does it exist? If this industry is so full of people independently writing the same stuff that AI can replicate it…then it was a vast misallocation of resources to begin with.
If local models get good enough, I think it’s a very different scenario than engineers all over the world relying on central entities which have their own motives.