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>I don't know the implementation details, but success would be not hitting pedestrians.

So by that logic, if we cured cancer but the treatment came with terrible side effects it wouldn't be considered a "success"? Does everything have to perfect to be a success?


If you clearly define your goals in advance, then you can make success whatever you want. What are Waymo's goals?

The raw corporate goals? Safe enough to be allowed on roads.

The less cynical set of goals would be safer than the mean human, then safer than the median human, then safer every year indefinitely.


Something tells me it wasn't 0 accidents, given that it's impossible.

I guess we'll never know.

Copyrights last a very long time. Moreover nothing says it has to be open. The recipe to coke is still secret.


The recipe to Coca Cola is not copyrighted (recipes in general can't be) but is protected by trade secret laws, which can notionally last forever.

The recipe also isn't that much of a secret, they read it on the air on a This American Life episode and the Coca Cola spokesperson kind of shrugged it off because you'd have to clone an entire industrial process to turn that recipe into a recognizable Coke.


The recipe of coke is not a copyright, it is a trade secret. Trade secrets can remain indefinitely if you can keep it secret. Copyrights are "open" by their nature.

In the context of this discussion though, what makes you think openai can't keep theirs a trade secret?

I was agreeing it could last a very long time, even longer that copyright. But specifically because it is not copyright. But as an AI model, it just won't have value for very long. Models are dated within a 6 months and obsolete in 2 years. IP around development may last longer.

>Open source models are available at highly competitive prices for anyone to use and are closing the gap to 6-8 months from frontier proprietary models.

What happens when the AI bubble is over and developers of open models doesn't want to incinerate money anymore? Foundation models aren't like curl or openssl. You can't have maintain it with a few engineer's free time.


If the bubble is over all the built infrastructure would become cheaper to train on? So those open models would incenerate less? Maybe there is an increase of specialist models?

Like after dot-com the leftovers were cheap - for a time - and became valuable (again) later.


No, if the bubble ends the use of all that built infrastructure stops being subsidized by an industry-wide wampum system where money gets "invested" and "spent" by the same two parties.

I feel like that was happening for the fiber-backhaul in 1999. Just different players.

Training is really cheap compared to the basically free inference being handed out by openai Anthropic Google etc.

Spending a million dollars on training and giving the model for free is far cheaper than hundreds of millions of dollars spent on inference every month and charging a few hundred thousand for it.


Not sure I totally follow. I'd love to better understand why companies are open sourcing models at all.

>at one point Taxes in the US were 70-90%.

That figure is highly misleading to cite by itself because the high tax rate also came with a bunch of loopholes and exemptions. That's why despite the drop in the headline rate of 70-90% or whatever, the actual tax take as % of GDP has remained remarkably steady in the past 7 decades.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S


This chart shows total tax receipts as a percent of GDP, which doesn't seem to address the poster's contention that historically the rich paid a higher share of those receipts through elevated marginal tax rates.

>Organizing your country with more sustainable growth where income disparities aren't so high means you don't have this problem to this extent.

Sounds like US vs Europe. Having redistributive policies funded by taxes works well until your most productive people flee for a country that doesn't, and you steadily lose ground to competitors economically.


Americans like to act like they've beaten European nations in some kind of battle, but is the purpose of a state not to provide the highest quality of life, safety and health to its citizens? Not try to make the biggest corporations? In which case, even taking the whole of Europe as an average (which you shouldn't), by every metric beyond GDP its ahead.

>but is the purpose of a state not to provide the highest quality of life, safety and health to its citizens?

It's going to be hard to provide all of that when you don't have the money for it (eg. fiscal crisis in France right now), or if you get invaded by your neighbor (or any other competitor) eclipses you economically and then uses that to subjugate you. The european model of reaping the peace dividend and using it to fund a more generous welfare state worked from 1990s to 2010s, but is breaking down with the rise of china and russia, and is further exacerbated by sluggish growth and the demographic/pension crisis.


> the demographic/pension crisis.

This is the actual issue, which we often avoid talking about because it's grim. Like, health care is expensive, old people health care is really expensive, and the proportion of old people in many Western countries is increasing over time (because of a fall in birth rates). I believe the FT had a good article about this recently, where they showed that the vast majority of extra spending from government was on old people.

Now, clearly, society doesn't want to just shoot old people when they get sick, but I'm not sure how taxation is gonna look as the proportion of old people increases. Obviously increasing retirement ages helps here, but that's mostly just a massive tax on blue collar workers, who are much less likely to be able to continue working into their 70s, whereas for many cubicle jockeys, it's a lot more plausible.


Everyone has their own objectives for life, but I actually don't think that the purpose of a state is to provide the instantaneous highest quality of life, safety and health to its citizens. Some might argue that it is to provide those things not at a sampled time but over a duration, but if so which generation should experience that? And if optimized over generations then surely some people must lose so that future others must gain, or the future others must lose to that the present ones may gain.

Personally, I think a higher goal for the state is to provide a substrate of sufficient physical safety, law and order, and infrastructure so that its citizens may have the ability to pursue their aspirations. I think human thriving is very important. And I want the ability to try at a ridiculous thing and achieve commensurate reward. In many ways, I don't even want that for me. I want that for others. When I see someone take a crack at something that most thought impossible and make it happen, I love it.

It isn't that those of us who have this opinion are temporarily embarrassed billionaires. It's that we like that someone took a crack at something absurd and became billionaires for it. People who don't get it always say these things out of misunderstanding: "Why do the poor in the US vote so often against their own interests?". The obvious answer is "because they are principled and not purely self-interested".


The thing is that Europe doesn't have much redistribute policies. Everyone at around lower rank manager or middle developer are landing in the highest tax bracket in most of the countries, and pay as much tax as rich people. And almost every tax raise is usually targeted at these barely middle-class people.

Except for the fact that despite popular belief, this doesn't actually happen. Not even among millionaires.

https://taxjustice.net/press/millionaire-exodus-did-not-occu...


>The greater issue is we allow the richest to basically print money via their stock based compensation, which allows them to turn unrealized gains into loans backed by these stocks.

How's this different than if CEOs or whatever were paid in cash, and then they immediately bought stocks with the cash?


Because you had an income to tax. The stock compensation is to avoid paying taxes on their income.

You owe the same amount in income taxes regardless of whether you're paid in stock or cash.

I think you're confusing this with the case where founders or early employees own large amounts of stock that they received early on in the company. They paid little to no taxes when they received it because it was worth basically nothing at the time. Later, the company has grown and it's worth a lot, so they have a large unrealized gain that they can use as collateral for loans. But that certainly wasn't guaranteed to happen. Most startups fail.


Don't you pay taxes on those when they vest?

Not sure what the point of the service is. Given that it's more expensive than other MVNOs, and isn't even more private. You can still buy prepaid SIMs in store with cash, so it's harder to get more private than that. Not to mention this company asks for your zip+4 code (which identifies down to a specific street), and information for E-911. It's basically like Trump Mobile but for people who care about "privacy".

I was unaware that you could buy a SIM with cash and no private data collected. I thought they had KYC laws like prepaid cash cards.

>I thought they had KYC laws like prepaid cash cards.

You don't. You could even order sim cards off ebay/amazon if you wanted to, which definitely doesn't have any KYC.


Clearly there is no point in it for you. The stores would ID you. As for the nine digit zip, I don't think they validate it. Your anti-privacy agenda is crystal clear.

>The stores would ID you

Source?

>As for the nine digit zip, I don't think they validate it.

Why collect it then? Imagine having a service promising "lets people use phones without revealing identity" but for whatever reason asks for a bunch of info, then brushes it aside with "yeah but you can fill in fake information so it's fine".

>Your anti-privacy agenda is crystal clear.

Your inability to take any criticism without resorting to personal attacks is crystal clear.


The answer to that question is so obvious that anyone raising it must necessarily be doing it in extremely bad faith. It's because the government mandates 911 service, and that the 911 service must be given the user's primary "location" when required. Your "criticism" is hereby redirected at yourself.

Can prepaid eSIMs be used anonymously?

Yes, but it's harder than just buying an esim from silent.link (or whatever) and installing it. The biggest issue is that phones have IMEIs that you can't change, so even with an esim you bought "anonymously", that won't do you any good if you install it to your iPhone that's linked to you in some way, eg. bought in Apple store with your credit card, inserted another SIM/esim that has your billing information, or simply the phone has pinged cell towers near your home/work for an extended amount of time.

For max privacy, remember to buy the phone anonymously as well. Be cognizant of links to non-anonymous IPs, emails, and identities.

There's a pretty big difference between getting killed in an altercation with ICE, and executing someone just because they refuse to give up their password.

Not really. ICE breaks into your home — remember they don't need a warrant for this. Demands to see your phone. It's locked. Holds a gun to your head and demands you unlock it. You refuse. Pulls the trigger.

Does it really seem that far–fetched when compared to the other ICE murders?


>Does it really seem that far–fetched when compared to the other ICE murders?

No, not really, because in the two killings you can vaguely argue they felt threatened. Pointing a gun to someone's head and demanding the password isn't anywhere close to that. Don't get me wrong, the killings are an affront to civil liberties and should be condemned/prosecuted accordingly, but to think that ICE agents are going around and reenacting the opening scene from Inglorious Bastards shows that your worldview can't handle more nuance than "fascism? true/false".


> but to think that ICE agents are going around and reenacting the opening scene from Inglorious Bastards shows that your worldview can't handle more nuance than "fascism? true/false".

Precisely.

There's no question that ICE is daily trampling civil liberties (esp 4th amendment).

But in both killings there is a reasonable interpretation that they feared for their lives.

Now should they have is another question. With better training, a 6v1 < 5ft engagement can easily disarm anyone with anything less than a suicide vest.

But still, we aren't at the "run around and headshot dissenters" phase.


The old 'shoot em in the leg' defense.

> there is a reasonable interpretation that they feared for their lives

... Did you watch the videos from multiple people filming?


> ... Did you watch the videos from multiple people filming?

Yeah, did you? Any more substantive discourse you'd like to add to the conversation?

To be clear about the word "reasonable" in my comment, it's similar to the usage of the very same word in the phrase "beyond a reasonable doubt".

The agents involved in the shootings aren't claiming that:

- the driver telepathically communicated their ill intent

- they saw Pretti transform into a Satan spawn and knew they had to put him down

They claim (unsurprisingly, to protect themselves) that they feared for their life because either a car was driving at them or they thought Pretti had another firearm. These are reasonable fears, that a reasonable person has.

That doesn't mean the agents involved are without blame. In fact, especially in Pretti's case, they constructed a pretext to began engagement with him (given that he was simply exercising his 1st amendment right just prior).

But once in the situation, a reasonable person could have feared for their lives.


> once in the situation, a reasonable person could have feared for their lives.

Sure, all things being equal, a person on the Clapham omnibus, yada, yada.

However, specifically in this situation it is very frequently not "median people" in the mix, it is LEO-phillic wannabe (or ex) soldier types that are often exchanging encrypted chat messages about "owning the libs", "goddamn <insert ethic slur>'s" and exchange grooming notes on provoking "officer-induced jeopardy" .. how to escalate a situation into what passes for "justified homicide" or least a chance to put the boot in.

Those countries that investigate and prosecute shootings by LEO's often find such things at the root of wrongful deaths.


You're not really disagreeing with the parent.

>That doesn't mean the agents involved are without blame. In fact, especially in Pretti's case, they constructed a pretext to began engagement with him (given that he was simply exercising his 1st amendment right just prior).


> You're not really disagreeing with the parent.

Was there anything else you would like to add as an observation?


Which of those links actually say that your phone number is private from Signal? If anything, this passage makes it sound like it's the reverse, because they specifically call out usernames not being stored in plaintext, but not phone numbers.

>We have also worked to ensure that keeping your phone number private from the people you speak with doesn’t necessitate giving more personal information to Signal. Your username is not stored in plaintext, meaning that Signal cannot easily see or produce the usernames of given accounts.


That's the same link as OP? I don't think flagging prevents you from clicking it, only hides it from the front page.

It's easier to reference.

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