Yes and this is in line with the idea that 99%+ of the value created by AI will be captured by the broader economy, not OpenAI and friends.
That being said, even local AI will still be displacing humans fast and it's not clear new jobs will be created fast enough. Regulations and policies will be needed imo.
Very curious why they haven’t diversified into real world assets. It seems like an obvious move, even if the margins would be lower than their fee business (~85% margins!!).
They’ve added tokens and altcoins to the platform, but I don’t think that’s a particularly strong long-term bet.
Because real world assets are heavily regulated and regulation has costs.
The competition is also stiff with decades of experience and network effects
The truth is these crypto shops have a pretty poor reputation in the traditional finance industry. Nobody in trading tech goes to work for them unless they offer insane salaries, because they (we) know it's an unstable place to be.
It's going the opposite direction. Those offering real world and tradfi assets are moving into the crypto space. That is going to eat Coinbase's lunch.
The worst part of using something like Coinbase is having to do yet another bank transfer, waiting for it to clear, doing KYC/AML yet again, etc etc for what most people is just to buy one or two single asset (BTC or maybe ETH probably). Instead just click buy in Robinhood or Schwab along with everything else.
The major prop shops and market makers are all over crypto, for sure. But they're only there because these markets are poorly regulated and there's a lot of retail juice to squeeze.
A friend of mine works for one of the major crypto firms and they're starting to deploy algorithmic trading bots on their own exchange.
That makes sense, thank you for explaining. TradFi already offer access (direct or ETFs) to major cryptos who have demonstrated some utility like BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL and a few others.
If interest in tokens and altcoins wanes, Coinbase may be in a weak position.
> We need to heavily regulate anybody who is not following the rules that make us the de-facto winner
How about building a multipolar world where different parts of the world (US/China/India/EU/Africa,..) get to build sovereign tech and have their own winners?
Same with Codex and very soon with open source & local models. Training great models (for coding and similar tasks) seems to be a question of scale and not much more.
It is likely that 99% of the value created by Anthropic / OpenAI / friends will go the end user. Which is great news.
I agree. It's not trendy to have much appreciation for capitalism these days, but it's hard to ignore that the fierce competition in this space seems like it's going to result in commoditized productivity gains for the masses rather than monopolistic/oligopolistic extraction. At least for the near future.
Totally. That is why it is key important to have open source and sovereign models that will be accessible to all and always.
At the end of the day, all these closed models are being built by companies that pumped all the knowledge from the internet without giving much back. But competition and open source will make sure most of the value return to the most of the people.
I have been told by a startup founder that he wants his strongest player to replace and automate the weakest using AI!
That may be what Meta is already doing. I’m afraid we are going to see something like that at play in tech for the coming few years until we get to an equilibrium. Sad and it might work.
It could be an A/B test to see whether people without an existing subscription care about Claude Code (CC) at all. If they sign up then CC is disabled (or not as it is not really an issue to offer more). Capturing that info would definitely be useful to a growth team.
They need to give the non-code service a different name.
And a slightly lower price.
If it succeeds they can adjust pricing later.
Otherwise they are messing with their new and old customers heads, regarding a service with a name that ought to be reliably interpretable. And seriously messing with their own credibility. Wrong kind of A/B test.
This is incompetence which i would normally discount. But Anthropic seems to be falling all over themselves to irritate customers.
For a successful IPO and attract more capital you need a very good story/narrative. That what is being crafted here. Business fundamentals matter less with elon!
Taking dystopia aside, without a lot more context I don't quite get how the captured data will be particularly useful to train models for say software engineering. If someone can shed light - thanks!
That being said, even local AI will still be displacing humans fast and it's not clear new jobs will be created fast enough. Regulations and policies will be needed imo.
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