I work for one of the largest packaging companies in the world. Customers across the board in the US are cutting back on how much packaging they need due to presumably lower sales volume. Make of that information what you will.
My eBay sales have been way down this year too and so far q4 is not looking good at all. People are cutting back across the board and it’s going to be very ugly once wall street stops plugging their ears and covering their eyes.
> My eBay sales have been way down this year too and so far q4 is not looking good at all.
I had half the mind to start up an old project I abandoned after losing my job. I opened eBay and was floored to see how much costs have increased in my little niche.
This is an indicator that is very close to the sale time. If you can share and don't mind sharing, how did whatever you saw during 2020/2021 corelate with retail sales?
car manufacturers, right at the beginning of covid, started cutting orders of components from their suppliers, thinking that demand is going to drop due to covid induced recession.
I know it’s not popular to bring politics into things on HN, but… From the outside at least, White House policy sounds like at least as much of a black swan event as COVID.
> I moved all of my money out of the US the week following the election.
I did it a little more than a week following the election, but same. I even sold any ETFs with exposure to the US market I previously owned. People thought I was overreacting selling my VGRO, but the YTD returns for my ex-US portfolio are about 150% of what I could have expected with my old holdings and the peace of mind is priceless.
I've kept about 1/3 of my investments in a non-US index fund for years, basically as a hedge against some unforeseen event in the US (having 100% exposure to the economy that my job is in seemed suboptimal). In 2016, all that really changed was that the event was now foreseen -- my domestic investments still outperformed that portion until this year.
This year is the first time that fund outperformed the rest of my portfolio. Not massively, since I do have some holdings that benefited from the AI boom, but noticeably. Just adding 1 to n here. Thanks for reminding me to rebalance, and maybe find another non-AI-related hedge just in case.
Most professional financial planning would have the equity assets portion of the portfolia you at ~30% investing in foreign assets (good times and bad).
> I moved all of my money out of the US the week following the election.
That sounds pretty black swan to me, I'm guessing you never felt the need sheet any previous election? Being predictable and being unique are different things.
Black swan event: an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
Trump is the direction taken by U.S. politics for decades now.
I could see it post- 9/11, and I was not the most enlightened teenager. Others probably saw it coming years or decades earlier.
> Trump is the direction taken by U.S. politics for decades now. I could see it post- 9/11, and I was not the most enlightened teenager. Others probably saw it coming years or decades earlier.
While it is kinda the same direction, it also has two Black Swan components:
1) What he's doing actually matches the rhetoric, e.g. actually trying to kick out illegal immigrants even though they're the (underpaid) farm workers holding back food price inflation.
2) It definitely wasn't on my metaphorical bingo card that someone with multiple felony convictions and who had been impeached twice for trying to interfere with the democratic hand over of power, went on to become the popular choice for president.
If Harris had won, she wouldn't have sent ice to invade cities and kidnap people. She wouldn't have hugely increased tariffs, etc. see also putting political minders at network news places as part of federal sales approvals.
America has two options; either become the slave of China and enter our century of humiliation, or deny Chinese access to free trade by competing in market economics. Protectionism does not balance America's trade deficits, and US citizens cannot compete against Mexican labor (let alone Chinese prison labor). The economics of it genuinely don't get any simpler than this; American manufacturing will be for naught if we cannot compete in a free market. We already have a successfully financialized economy, throwing out Reaganomics for an even more shit deal is peak neoreactionary nonsense.
> Others probably saw it coming years or decades earlier.
I saw the signs of the beginnings of it decades ago (shortly following the Reagan era) but I had zero clue that it would (or even could) ever get as completely mad-house outta-control as it has. I've watched the situation devolve year after year for decades now, and all the while I kept foolishly believing "It can't keep getting worse forever. People are gonna wake up any second now." Well, here we are. Not entirely sure how we got here, or how we'll ever get back, but... This is how it is, I guess. :shrug:
"Rock bottom" is when the last human stands alone in their luxury doomsday bunker just waiting to die and realizes that dying with all the money means literally nothing in the grand scheme of the Universe. They didn't "win" anything of lasting value after all...
True. It must be added, that theres two wrenches in the machinery that transforms information into action currently.
Firstly - The average market behavior is average.
From experience, most people could not imagine anything of what was predicted, would come true. There is a large … debt of intellectual work that is being underwritten, allowing people to sell narratives which do not correspond to reality.
This is a direct result of a captured, unfair information environment.
As a result, the average behavior of the market is not pricing in these things, even if the plans were made clear.
That view sounds like it's coming from a position of a white person, not married to a minority, not an immigrant. That describes me too. Software engineer, more secure economically.
Even people with visas or permanent residency, or who even look like they might be Hispanic are justifiably worried about a random car pulling them over and breaking their window. If you aren't aware or concerned, I call that oblivious or a denial of reality. Or privilege (edit: corrected spelling).
It's different in some ways of course than with covid.
For (services) software people, 2020 was great: work from home, sky-high jobs demand (perhaps Zero-interest related), surging demand and revenue because by people were bored at home. Brick and mortar retail workers were screwed in 2020.
It is possible that 2025 could be the opposite, the software jobs market os already spooky for juniors, and could get much worse with an AI bust - guess what companies will do to show investors they are making up for written-off AI investments? A recession will lead to a drop in demand for online services like streaming, online shopping as people tighten their belts, upward ratcheting of subscription prices will only make the drop worse.
I think with an AI bust we're more likely to see juniors actually start getting jobs at reasonable rates... but only after short-sighted layoffs of a bunch of more senior positions as opposed to dumping AI products that so many companies have already signed year+ long contracts for in advance.
A contagious disease pandemic is not a black swan event. We have had many of them before and there are people whose day jobs are to model and plan for them.
These are not mutually exclusive properties. Pandemic modellers do not predict exactly when a pandemic will emerge, they predict how a pandemic will evolve once it emerges. The actual emergence of a pandemic is still about as predictable as, say, a stock market crash or a war.
We've had, in this century, SARS, swine flu, MERS, ebola (× like 4), mpox (×2 apparently), Zika virus, and COVID-19. AIDS is a pandemic that's been going on since before I was born.
Pandemics and pandemic scares are really friggin' common.
How many of those resulted in worldwide lockdowns, masking mandates, and widespread testing requirements for travel? I believe the answer is: 1.
This is a very pedantic counter argument that leans on the fact that "pandemic" has too broad of a definition. There was nothing else like COVID in my (40 year) lifetime.
Half of them have, actually. The COVID response was heavily based off of the SARS response. The major difference with COVID is that it's the first time first world countries were asked to employ standard public health responses in many decades.
A black swan is something you didn't even imagine before encountering it. If you never imagined anything like COVID that's likely because your day job is unrelated to health emergency preparedness.
I've imagined things far worse than covid my friend. I write sci-fi and horror. Other people's "black swans" are my evening wind-down exercise. Just because I've seen some shit doesn't mean that when it tears through the world and it's new to y'all it won't be a black swan.
Trump fired many people whose job it was to plan for it. RFK Jr canceled vaccine research and various practices that will make it worse. I never imagined such idiocy on top of Trump's more likely racism policies. Future pandemics are much more likely now.
I beg to differ. Epidemiologists and public health planners always knew such a pandemic would happen eventually. In fact, it wasn't even surprising that it came from a coronavirus as this virus group was the most likely contender with the influenza family.
The only open question was when. We dodged the bullet several times over the past two decades with SRAS, H5N1, MERS and H1N1 (notice, two influenza and two coronaviruses), but one virus slipping through was definitely the most likely outcome.
And I can confidently tell you: it will happen again.
Because something likely to happen over the next billions of years and something that will most likely occur in your lifetime are entirely equivalent indeed…
You guys should really go get some nuance at the retail store.
Sure, all probabilities go to 1 over a large enough time span. I don't think there's anything useful you can do with that information. Being early is the same as being wrong.
Tariffs can easily be turned off, and in December the supreme Court could rule that they majority of tariffs in place are illegal AND must be refunded.
Polymarket gives a >50% chance of the tariffs being ruled illegal, not that they would be refunded - the market only gives a ~8% chance of the tariffs being ruled illegal AND and order to refund: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-court-force-trump-to-r...
Can you explain how you reached that conclusion? If I'm reading the order book correctly, you'd need much more than 10k to remove all the opposing liquidity. And of course you can't assume that other participants will stand by idly, when you put in enough money to move the market away from what they believe is correct you might discover a lot more contra liquidity appears. So it might not stay where you want it for more than a moment.
That’s cumulative liquidity available on the right hand side.
i.e the ~13k shown at 99c and ~12k show at 98c aren’t independent. If the 12k is taken at 98c, only 1k would be left avail at 99c.
You’re right if you wanted to hold the price there it would cost you more, however if there isn’t a straight arb, maybe not instantly, and (some) smart bettors might be wary of such a market going to near 100%
and that inflation was (partially) due to the lack of supply of production (say, of cars). Which is due to the lack of supply of components (that was cancelled due to expectation of low demand, as well as various shipping/cargo issues in the ensuing period).
At least until such time as his polling stumbles the GOP will do absolutely anything he says. And Trump will do whatever it takes to keep the grease coming in, I really think him turning on the printing presses is a long from the least likely scenario.
Would the GOP have to eat large quantities of excrement, yes. Have they become used to doing that (cf Epstein), yes.
I remember having similar experiences as a child. What's strange to think about is; what if we lived in a world where we all had this symptom and just considered it normal? The intersection of "reality" and perception is a fascicnating place
After a long walk, I often have the experience of standing still on pavement, and watching the paving continually expand away from me.
Obviously a simple example of fatigue of neurons encoding one perceptual quality enabling the over expression/perception of its opposite. But it just demonstrates how fragile our conscious perceptions are to every day minor sensory/perception deviations from their nominal correspondence.
After/during a traumatic experience, my mind disassociated from a basic aspect of reality. I knew what I perceived was completely nonsensical and misleading, but that didn't attenuate the very dramatic and warped perception in the slightest, for months.
To me it feels like a completely different drug compared to nnDMT. 5-meo-DMT also feels very different depending on the roa from my experience (vaped vs IM)
I dissolved 20mg of 4-AcO-DMT in 1mL of bacteriostatic water in a sealed, sterile vial and then injected it intramuscularly into my glute.
(If you do this, make sure you inject the upper-outer quadrant. The closer to your midline you go, the further the risk of you hitting a nerve.)
If you're very experienced and want to do it for novelty's sake, go for it; I'd warn you, but anyone considering this should know what they're likely in for.
Nearly immediately after injection, I became so filled with vibrating, psychedelic energy I thought my soul was going to be ripped from my body. I had to clutch the edge of the sink, trying not to vomit while staring at the exploding fractals swirling in the metallic reflection.
It only lasts about 2 hours. I'd not particularly rate the experience as "good".
That’s a good protocol for safely doing IM as you describe it. Though that seems like a big IM dose! :D I’m not too familiar with 4-aco-dmt so couldn’t say.
For 5-meo I generally do 6-8mg prepared as above. That seems subjectively close to 15-20mg vaped (powder in a glass pipe not in a “juice” vape).
But either of those are definitely a commitment to the ride, lol. I do like the mixed jaguar vape cartridges for micro dosing though (like Bill prepares them in the article). Very easy to control your dosage that way with the ability to start slow and add more with additional puffs.
For reference, 20-25mg of oral 4-Aco-DMT feels identical to 3.5g of standard potency cubensis.
But 4-AcO has much less body load and no nausea from the organic matter that'd usually be sitting in your stomach, I think it's better than "organic" shrooms.
5-MeO is a lot stronger mg-for-mg, you're quite brave at those doses IMO!
Truth be told, I was more of a fan of the lighter headspace phenethylamines, like 2C-B or even 25i/25b-NBOMe.
It’s a little difficult to describe as 5-meo-DMT is not a visual type of trip. In fact I get almost no visuals from it even at relatively high doses.
I would describe 5-meo as a trip that gives you an immediate understanding of how life and the universe “works” at a very fundamental level. Your perception changes from analytical type thinking to all of a sudden just knowing how everything fits together and how you can control reality around you. A bit like pulling the curtain back and seeing the source code of realty but then also intuitively knowing how to manipulate and rewrite it and seeing the effects of that in real time.
I wish I could explain it better.
In terms of ROA between vaping and IM get the same type of knowing but from a different perspective. Injected feels like your personal programming code gets rewritten and you have a reality shift to having administrator privileges while vaped feels like the person that wrote the code is a co-pilot in your head explaining how the code is written and how it executes to present as reality to you.
There’s definitely a lot of overlap between each roa type though.
What I describe above is also my experience after dozens of trips with 5-Meo. The first few were definitely more confusing and at times overwhelming as the perspective shift can be severe. Once you get experienced though it’s a fun way to cruise around in “reality”
It really depends on how "library of the year" is determined.
Some years back now, our local library got a new boss who was determined to do everything the new and modern way. In the process, the boss drove away half of the paid staff, I don't know what fraction of the volunteer staff, and the entire community support organization. But hey, those are all old people and their values clearly don't matter (who cares if they're the ones with tons of free time?). Help, I don't have the money or people to run programs anymore! Better run away and get another job. Now, the library still exists but a lot of people are going to the next town over, and the new new boss is struggling to rebuild from scratch.
It would be completely unsurprising if "do things the modern way" and "chases awards" are significantly overlapped without corresponding to "improves things for the actual users", and "support LGBT" is code for "gerontophobia".
Ah yes, critical thinking, like taking an advertising article on the internet at face value and ignoring that there might be more to the story. Who needs Knoll's Law? Also, awards are always given to the party that deserves them and have absolutely no politicking or signaling involved.
I don't claim what I saw locally is exactly what's happening there, but ... my point is, there's probably a lot happening at the local level, and only the locals can really know more. And even then, until the dust settles, you may need to be careful which faction of local politics (which often is completely unrelated to the factions in national politics) you're talking to.
It sounds more like the same psychological manipulation that underpins the IRL world (at least the US) in the form of capitalism. Engineered towards adults to buy as much useless crap as possible.
Teach kids that it’s the same kind of manipulation as in their games (and how to spot it) and perhaps they will be better equipped to not get fucked by adult life.
The way the world works these days m 60 Days is enough for the president to unilaterally get us into war with literally every country on the planet.
This president has clearly exposed the unarticulated parts of out laws which is supposed to make them work; The hope that the president will essentially act and interpret them in “good faith”
Congress and the US in general has had plenty of time to adjust the powers of the president as US naval, air, and communications capabilities have increased.
not doing so is approval of the change in the president's power to initiate and wage war unilaterally without congressional involvement
Just out of curiosity as I’m not familiar with the laws here; If a random person on the street confesses a crime (child sexual abuse or otherwise) to me am I required to report it or do I simply have the right to report it if I so choose?
No, because you aren’t a mandated reporter, although in PA the laws are so broad that a volunteer who sweeps the Sunday school classrooms ends up being a mandated reporter.
It would be unconstitutional to require all citizens to “report” crimes they hear other people confess to them, for rather obvious reasons, although I’m sure some state government will try that next.
For most people a good 2.1 system vs surround or soundbars is where it’s at these days. As you say most surround mixing is an afterthought now anyway.
The physics of moving air to create sound hasn’t really changed in any meaningful ways; the biggest upgrade is usually larger drivers fed with more power. I think most would experience that as much more of a theatre like experience than 7+ tiny underpowered satellites outputting an already bad mix.
I'd say "specific format surround mixing" like 5.1 or 7.1 is mostly an afterthought, but Dolby Atmos (which is "mix once and it automatically folds down properly to the actual number of atmos speakers" has become huge in the audio world according to multiple interviews I've read with pro audio mixers and film/video/TV post folks.
Be careful about Atmos. Most Atmos discs (I refuse to stream it) are a 5.1 TrueHD main setup with atoms layered in. So it's still 5.1 or 7.1 with some atmos effects.
That being said, I have a 7.1.4 Atmost setup and it is on the level of "HOLY SHIT" good.
As I’ve grown older I’ve come to realize that what truly makes high end luxury cars is the suspension and the sound deadening. The other stuff is important but doesn’t really set the cars apart. Sitting in a little mobile room completely divorced from the sensory input of the outside world truly feels luxurious
I'm in the same boat regarding sound deadening, so when I was in the market for a car this was my #1 priority. But outside of the luxury segment, they do not even talk about sound deadening or noise isolation. This idea simply does not exist. It was very disappointing because this is a fairly low tech, inexpensive feature that could easily find its way to mainstream cars. Sure it adds some extra weight, but the improvement in riding comfort easily outweighs the fuel consumption. It's like flying with noise cancellation headphones. You don't know what you're missing unless you try it once, and then you can never go back.
> when I was in the market for a car this was my #1 priority
Did you look at recent model year trucks? The acoustic treatment on these vehicles is almost too much. I feel like I am in a recording booth every time I roll up my windows. I have to keep them open a little bit or my tinnitus starts to bother me.
Trucks are not a thing where I live, but I wish I could drive in a recording booth.
NAD, but opening up your windows like that might actually worsen your tinnitus. Wind noise can be pretty loud at speeds and you're teaching your brain to expect such background noise at all times. Might be better off playing some audio. If you have a quiet cabin, you can get away with very low volumes, just enough to give your ears something to focus on instead of getting bored and starting to wail by themselves.
I'm sure it does, but this just made me realize something.
I drive a Smart Fortwo, which goes in the opposite direction - there's not much suspension to speak of, and the short wheelbase means you rock around a lot more on uneven street surfaces, so you're very much connected to the outside world. One of the things I've noticed when switching back and forth between that and a normal sedan is that, if I'm not consciously thinking about it, I'll drive slightly more aggressively in the sedan than in the Smart. And I think it's precisely because of that difference in connection with the outside world.
The same happened when I rented a pickup truck a while back to move some furniture; I don't remember the model, but I think it was a fairly recent/common one. It was very clear that movements that would have felt pretty aggressive to me if I were walking or biking around felt less so from the driver's seat. And I bet the same is true of these luxury cars.
This is of particular interest to me because my day-to-day method of getting around is not driving but rather walking and biking, and it's worrying to me if drivers are subconsciously acting more aggressively just because they feel more disconnected from the world around them.
It appears that the American Automobile Labeling Act measures domestic content on a value basis (that is, the amount the manufacturer pays the supplier for it):
