It is possible that they genuinely thought that Putin was bluffing. But that would be further evidence for the historically very poor predictive abilities of the Neocons, at least if you compare their public statements with outcomes.
What they think or intend in private is another issue.
I think there is no passive voice. If you prefer to replace "Then it did happen" with "Russia attacked", that is of course fine.
But after Russia attacked there were several Neocon interviews where they acted surprised and did frame it as "We did not think it would happen" in a very casual way.
What they think or intend in private is another issue.