It depends - if someone uses the same compound but provably for a different indication (like maybe anti-periodontic diseases or something) or for a different intake mechanism, they could get another patent and proceed with trials.
Granted, it's not going to be easy because the original patent has expired so it's going to be very easy for an upstart Indian company to conduct basic clinical trials, use part of the data of the second patent's holder to prove equivalency (they did this test so we don't need to do this test), and then get approved through an accelerated pathway in the FDA. Which is why even well-capitalized players will shy away from what could be a cash cow.
Anti-periodontic diseases are highly irrelevant compared to cavities. Not even the original cavity application did manage to get enough funding at the time. So there will be no Indian upstart, there is and likely will be nobody who invests the money into ultra expensive trials. The ship has sailed.
Local AI is a bit like wind parks. Everyone is in favor, except if they are in your own backyard. There was recently a huge outcry when Chrome shipped a local 4 GB AI model:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48019219
I have to conclude that people would like to have powerful local AI but it should at the same time only be a tiny model. In which case it wouldn't be powerful.
I think it takes time. I can only imagine the hours required to research, develop and shoot such well-evidenced explanations, given that part of his audience is true believers searching for any gap through which they can sustain their beliefs. But look at his website: https://www.metabunk.org. A quick search there for "Transients" returned several pages of posts, some from Mick himself.
Frankly, I don't follow it these days as I have nowhere near Mick's saintly level of patience to so calmly endure a never-ending game of whac-a-mole. Rational, evidence-based skeptics like Mick are doomed to Sisyphean toil because even after they've resoundingly explained a hundred vague claims, UFO (and Chem-Trail, Flat Earth, etc) true believers will always find a new one to hitch their belief to. Because, apparently, a consistent trend of 100 consecutive falsifications implies nothing about the likelihood of #101. And at the end of the day, it's impossible to conclusively prove a negative.
>Rational, evidence-based skeptics like Mick are doomed to Sisyphean toil because even after they've resoundingly explained a hundred vague claims, UFO (and Chem-Trail, Flat Earth, etc) true believers will always find a new one to hitch their belief to.
Right. And I do think that meticulous effort is invaluable because it heightens the cost of cognitive dissonance which can be important to reaching people on the sidelines.
But it makes you wonder if the debunking community should be a bit more intentional about intercepting whatever these psychological processes are that make people immune to evidence-based correction, and target those mechanisms the same meticulousness in patients of a debunk.
Although obviously I think the trouble with that is such a task would amount to helping steer such people into a fabric of social and cultural connectedness that's more valuable to them than the conspiracies are. Which seems a tall order. But maybe engineering an alternative psychological virus that crowds out the conspiracies in favor of something else is a more efficient option.
> But it makes you wonder if the debunking community should be a bit more intentional about intercepting whatever these psychological processes are that make people immune to evidence-based correction, and target those mechanisms the same meticulousness in patients of a debunk.
You haven't spent much time arguing with people who refuse to listen to any evidence at all, have you? The "psychological processes" you describe are, in many cases, that people will simply stick their (metaphorical) fingers in their ears and say "La la la, I'm not listening!" In other words, a willful, determined refusal to listen.
It's not a matter of psychological processes, at least not for the people I've interacted with in the past. It's plain and simple refusal. They've decided that they're right, they know it, and nobody is going to tell them otherwise, darn it!
P.S. Edited to add this, because I meant to write it earlier and forgot: It's just stubbornness. You can't cure stubbornness with psychoanalysis. Some people just don't want to believe in what you're trying to tell them. As the even older quote goes, "You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink." You can lead a stubborn person to all the evidence in the world, but you can't make him think.
Indeed. As an example, there was a one-line response far down-thread from my GP which basically said only "Mick West is not credible" (which the poster has since deleted). I found this remarkable because Mick West, more than any skeptic I've seen, meticulously cites all his sources and doggedly sticks to only well-evidenced, fully supported facts. No broad claims, blanket dismissals, appeals to authority or consensus. He just does the work of collating relevant evidence and practical experiments which anyone can confirm and replicate for themselves. Because he's not asking us to trust anything we can't verify ourselves, his credibility is irrelevant.
Which made me want to reply, "If Mick West isn't credible, name one source of evidence which counters UFO true belief who IS credible in your opinion?" The obvious point being, there are none, because their belief is unfalsifiable. But then I remembered why engaging with those holding unfalsifiable beliefs is futile... the main point of your post. :-)
> Because, apparently, a consistent trend of 100 consecutive falsifications implies nothing about the likelihood of #101. And at the end of the day, it's impossible to conclusively prove a negative.
That's right. Not sure why you sound a bit unhappy with this.
In particular, a source can become more untrustworthy over time if the source is repeatedly proven to lie or be reckless about the truth. I'm not sure you can apply the same logic to "categories of claims". What is the rationale behind your implied frustration that people are not "learning" that some "categories of claims" tend to be untrue? (not to mention the arbitrary grouping of totally disparate ones like Chem-Trails and Flat Earth)
If a “category of claims” has shared causal structure, then the category’s track record absolutely does tell you something about the next claim in it.
It’s not arbitrary. Alien UFOs, Chem-Trails, and Flat Earth are obviously all generated from the same distribution of bullshit: ambiguous or misunderstood phenomena explained by positing a vast hidden conspiracy.
Every person on Earth could agree that Earth is flat and it wouldn't affect the reality of whether or not extraterrestrials visit earth even a little bit.
The shared causal structure is the absence of facts and denial of science. Nearly every religion on earth also suffers from that in their gospel, where many fictitious and supernatural phenomena are bundled together and sold for truth.
I'd prefer to speak about "evidence in support of/against" rather than "facts", which often conceals a presuming-the-consequent kind of fallacy.
> denial of science
Whether "science" is believed or denied by any particular person has no effect on whether or not extraterrestrial intelligence has or is visiting earth.
Demanding that "science" be believed is un-scientific. I am not drawing an equivalence between science and religion here, but pointing out that your argument is a super hand-wavey appeal to an inviolable "gospel". I'm old enough to remember when a theory like intra-galactic panspermia was regarded like canals-on-Mars.
In my view, ETI theories are lacking any credible evidence and this makes me sad.
There is nothing anti-science about the idea of extraterrestrial intelligence. In fact its apparent absence is has a name -- it's called the Fermi Paradox.
And the facts are just ... released. It's the interpretation of the observations that are disputed. And unless you think they are all fake, the explanations that do not involve alien tech are non-trivial to say the least.
I'm not sure why you'd think there is any shared causal structure with flat earthers at all.
Extraterrestrial intelligence existing somewhere in the universe, and extraterrestrial life visiting Earth are two distinct things, and the former is vastly more probable than the latter.
Yes, and to bring it back to GP's point, if someone comes telling you they just saw a flying saucer rise on a big chem trail above the flat earth's horizon, then you perhaps don't take their next claim all too serious.
You are assuming that the people who are arguing about "transients", or people like Avi Loeb, are also people who believe in flat earth or flying saucers.
True, but if you don't have sufficient knowledge of IR to assess the claim that a particular photo cannot be a bird, the tendency of the people making and believing that claim are usually equally confident that jet fuel cannot melt steel beams and that vaccines contain microchips is a compelling argument against it.
Similarly the absence of a conspiracy of freemasons running something does not inhibit the existence of a conspiracy of Taylor Swift fans running it in any possible way. But I think any objective assessment of whether the Swiftie conspiracy is likely to be real or not should probably take into account the possibility people positing Swiftie conspiracies have been influenced more by well established tropes about freemasons and Jews, and if the alternate hypothesis that a common human failure mode involves positing the idea groups they distrust secretly conspire to achieve unrelated outcome they dislike is well supported and the claim of an actual Swiftie conspiracy isn't...
The only thing that cuts against this is that if I was an intelligent extraterrestrial wishing to remain secret at a time of widespread interest in the possibility of extraterrestrials, I'd probably actively select the sort of people that might discredit the existence of UFOs by pattern matching all sorts of rubbish to reveal myself to.
> if I was an intelligent extraterrestrial wishing to remain secret at a time of widespread interest in the possibility of extraterrestrials, I'd probably actively select the sort of people that might discredit the existence of UFOs by pattern matching all sorts of rubbish to reveal myself to.
I've read claims that the Cold War-era US Gov employed exactly this strategy on the people camping out along the fence at sites like Area 51, taking pictures of advanced aircraft under development. I.e., they actually took some people down into the basement and showed them "alien bodies" to confuse the Soviets.
That's an example of ambiguous or misunderstood phenomena explained by a professor who decided that there's more money in UFO BS than in his previous career (or sincerely lost his grip on reality, who knows).
It was an interesting thoery, but IMO his habit of making similar claims every time an interstellar object is discovered cast doubt on that original theory.
I note that article seems quite biased against Loeb. For example, they cite USA Today strongly criticizing him, which is not a reputable source in this debate. Wikipedia also doesn't mention that many other astrophysicists think that his 'Oumuamua theory is unlikely but not crazy. They only cite very negative criticism, but not the many more neutral responses. They also don't mention that he is far from the only one believing that 'Oumuamua appears to have a highly unusual shape. Wikipedia tries to paint him in the worst light possible.
I've got no horse in this race, but the great thing about Wikipedia is that you can edit the article[0] to fix anything that you feel is incorrect and/or not adhering to the encyclopedia's policies. You could also bring up your concerns on the talk page[1].
My edit would be reverted, and my talk page complaints would take a large amount of effort that likely ultimately goes nowhere when it's up against established editors. Instead I was telling you here that Wikipedia is not automatically unbiased just because it could theoretically be edited by anyone.
Transients are tiny spots which occasionally occurred in the film emulsion of photographic sky surveys taken prior to 1957 when satellites were first launched. They are called transient because they're only seen in one ~hour-long photographic exposure.
There may actually have been a legitimate reason for that. First, not all these "things" are said to be flying, some are supposed to have gone underwater (although "Aerial" sort of wrecks that idea). Second (and IMO more important), "Object" (in UFO) begs the question of whether these are objects. Many of them are not--they're artifacts in imaging or radar systems, or optical illusions--perhaps intentional illusions. ("Things" that appear to be moving really fast, then take a sudden turn, are easily imitated by lines of drones carrying radar and/or visual transponders.)
Maybe they should have sold the TurboGrafx-16 in the US only with the CD add-on already built in, and one or two CD games included to set off the hardware price somewhat. That would have made them stand out versus SNES/Genesis.
CD drives were still expensive and a bit flakey at that point. It might have worked by packing in extra games.
Sega of America was just really good at understanding the US market.
Sega did a US launch (August 29, 1989) of the Genesis 9 months after the JP launch. They had EA releasing sports games on the console in 1990.
The TG-16 came out in 1987 in JP but they waited 1 year 10 months to do a US release, so it came out after the Genesis. They didn't get any US developers on board.
A 1988 release of the TG-16 combined with some decent sports games probably would have been a success.
Yeah, ideally we would need the phi coefficient (aka MCC, the binary Pearson correlation), which can be calculated from a confusion matrix of yes/no LLM classifications for all kernel diffs. (Number of true positives, true negatives, false positives, false negatives.)
That's how it worked with the original controller, and how it works with the steam deck.
Like I said, it won't have all the modern features as it will be stuck on a MKB profile or a Xbox gamepad profile (or whatever you configure). But it will work
I still use the original steam controller, and I can tell you this is not true. If steam is not launched, the controller runs in a keyboard/mouse emulation mode and is not detected as a controller. This behavior is hardcoded in the firmware and cannot be changed.
https://www.cremieux.xyz/p/the-rise-and-impending-fall-of-th...
The patents expired, so nobody can raise the hundreds of millions to do the phase II/III safety trials.
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