In my now long lifetime, I can't tell you how many times I've heard the phrase "This time it really is different" for it to turn out that it really wasn't all that different. Maybe this time it is, but I'd put my bet on isn't.
>In my now long lifetime, I can't tell you how many times I've heard the phrase...
Russell's Turkey Parable:
"The man who has fed the chicken every day throughout its life at last wrings its neck instead, showing that more refined views as to the uniformity of nature would have been useful to the chicken."
> In my now long lifetime, I can't tell you how many times I've heard the phrase "This time it really is different"
This isn't an argument and it shows a fundamental lack of understanding of risk and game theory.
Besides, it's always been different, in the sense of boiling frog temperature going up. The present case is more different because this time, the rate of rising is high enough to make the frogs uncomfortable... and you're trying to calm them down and keep them in the water:
> Look frogs, the temps've always been rising, "many times I've heard the phrase "This time it really is different" for it to turn out that it really wasn't all that different."
> Maybe this time it is, but I'd put my bet on isn't.
Bro, it's not about betting... you have to try hard to learn something about risk.
Can't all those bodily signals (from the article: heart activity, breathing patterns, sweat response, blood flow and temperature) be measured with an Apple iWatch?
Pedantic comment: There is no such thing as an Apple iWatch; they finally did it right and named a product without `i` in front. Just Apple Watch. My guess is the level of detail the "signals" can be seen is what matters. Apple Watch is good for some things but its not constant its only checking in from time to time to get a reading. Purpose built device probably has higher details (faster polling or something) than a small thing on your wrist.
Total overreach. I go from one pedal driving on my EV to my manual 5 speed 2004 Saab on a regular basis. I've been doing this for 6.5 years. I'm really glad nobody has been telling me that I can't do it.
> In 2024, a new energy vehicle brand conducted a user survey, revealing that 32% of car owners had mistakenly used the accelerator pedal as the brake pedal in emergencies, with 15% resulting in accidents.
> A simulation test by Tsinghua University's Automotive Safety Laboratory also showed that drivers accustomed to the one-pedal mode had an average reaction time 0.3 seconds longer when pressing the brake pedal in an emergency, equivalent to an additional braking distance of 8.3 meters at 100 km/h.
I learned to drive on a manual car, and all my cars were manual for the past ~20 years. My current car is an ev/auto.
For me the learning curve was remembering to _not_ press the brake with my left foot, thinking it's the clutch when I'm mentally downshifting or stopping. A left foot on the brake thinking it's the clutch is for sure a powerful thing!
For anybody who's interested in spending an hour listening, this podcast (https://www.econtalk.org/read-like-a-champion-with-doug-lemo...) gives a very good, detailed look at what's wrong with current reading programs in the U.S. and how to do it better. Phonics, vocabulary and background knowledge.
Presumably, if they're sitting at 20-30% occupancy, somebody (like the developer) is going to be having trouble paying their bank loans. You understand what happens next? (hint: prices plummet). If that isn't happening then your diagnosis of the problem is very likely wrong.
It can easily be both statements are true. And a quick look at Zillow's data on Phoenix shows a huge run up in prices from 2015, but a leveling and interesting looking drop happening over the past year. The article certainly could have described this with a bit more elegance than it did.
The logic of the article is that people want more housing up to the point in which existing owners become terrified at the prospect of losing their equity and demand action. The logic is bizarre because the behavior its trying to describe is bizarre. Economy's are extremely complicated feedback loops and housing is part of the economy.
My step-father taught shop for over 30 years at the 7th-9th grade level using all the tools you mention. I can't recall a single serious accident under his watch. Not to mention, at his funeral, you'd be shocked at how many of his former students came to pay their respects. Many talked about how it had changed their lives irrespective of the fields they worked in as adults.
Further not to mention, I'm sitting next to two Appalachian dulcimers that were among the 100s he built in the 70s and 80s.
My old man taught shop at the high school level for a similar amount of time, and (even though I am admittedly biased) I can say that he was measurably the most beloved teacher in the school. To this day, he gets messages from former students who are now successful tradesmen, thanking him for getting them on the right path.
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