In this context, I believe the tavern is a metaphor for Facebook etc., and hence it's not one tavern but a business which tried to own all taverns, pubs, and restaurants, who has made the beer (and food) free because juicy gossip sells more opportunities for ad revenue, and all the governments want in on that.
Also, "monopoly on violence" is deputised in a lot of ways, including "Stand Your Ground" laws, and "Castle doctrine" (which may or may not include a workplace), and what's allowed for trespass and if trespass includes not leaving when told to.
(And even when it's more of a first amendment issue than a fourth, there's also occasional news stories about people getting sued for leaving negative reviews of a business because the business snuck in a no-disparagement clause into the terms and conditions).
> Hallucinations are exceptionally rare now, since they now rely on searching for answers rather than what was in its training data.
Well, I wouldn't go that far, but the hallucinations have moved up to being about more complicated things than they used to be.
Also, I've seen a few recent ones that "think" (for lack of a better word) that they know enough about politics to "know" they don't need to search for current events to, for example, answer a question about the consequences of the White House threatening military action to take Greenland. (The AI replied with something like "It is completely inconceivable that the US would ever do this").
I happen to think it is also useful to discuss "intelligence" and "consciousness", but nevertheless think these things are unconnected to the economic impact.
The obvious question is, if you can really offer "a guaranteed minimum return of 17.5%", why can't you find anyone willing to lend you the same money for merely half that return, given that would still be a fantastic investment by most standards if you could really guarantee it?
That example is completely false: how much rain will fall is absolutely a computable function, just a very difficult and expensive function to evaluate with absurdly large boundary conditions.
This is in the same sense that while it is technically correct to describe all physically instantiated computer programs, and by extension all AI, as being in the set of "things which are just Markov chains", it comes with a massive cost that may or may not be physically realisable within this universe.
Rainfall to the exact number of molecules is computable. Just hard. A quantum simulation of every protein folding and every electron energy level of every atom inside every cell of your brain on a classical computer is computable, in the Church-Turing sense, just with an exponential slowdown.
The busy beaver function, however, is actually un-computable.
You just compute the brains of a bunch of immortal mathematics. At which point it's "very difficult and expensive function to evaluate with absurdly large boundary conditions."
One of the most consequential aspects of the busy beaver game is that, if it were possible to compute the functions Σ(n) and S(n) for all n, then this would resolve all mathematical conjectures which can be encoded in the form "does ⟨this Turing machine⟩ halt".[5] For example, there is a 27-state Turing machine that checks Goldbach's conjecture for each number and halts on a counterexample; if this machine did not halt after running for S(27) steps, then it must run forever, resolving the conjecture.[5][7] Many other problems, including the Riemann hypothesis (744 states) and the consistency of ZF set theory (745 states[8][9]), can be expressed in a similar form, where at most a countably infinite number of cases need to be checked.[5]
"Uncomputable" has a very specific meaning, and the busy beaver function is one of those things, it is not merely "hard".
> You just compute the brains of a bunch of immortal mathematics. At which point it's "very difficult and expensive function to evaluate with absurdly large boundary conditions."
Humans are not magic, humans cannot solve it either, just as they cannot magically solve the halting problem for all inputs.
That humans come in various degrees of competence at this rather than an, ahem, boolean have/don't have; plus how we can already do a bad approximation of it, in a field whose rapid improvements hint that there is still a lot of low-hanging fruit, is a reason for techno-optimism.
Most long-term gamblers will tell you that the first games they played, they won. This is a real thing, yet we cannot apply it by making one bet and then stopping, because so are the probabilities being fair and un-biased.
What squares these two things is that most of the people who played and lost their first games, did not get addicted to gambling.
In more words, "of course it's stupid, it's as complex as a mid-sized rodent where we taught it purely by selective breeding on getting answers right while carefully preventing any mutations which made their brains any bigger".
It's basically plotting the dots of all easily accessible written word to find your words, finding the words that are answers to your words and then charting a line through them no matter how scattered those points may be, and spitting that back out. It doesn't "know" anything nor is it reasoning even if the results are similar.
You have to come into it with the same "these people are only stupid and lack the experience to answer my questions despite thinking they do, they lack the world view to even process how I arrived at the parameters of my question(s)" apprehension like you would if asking reddit about some hazardous thing that would make them all screech. AI is the margarine to that butter.
It's a technology with potential to deliver great value, but there are limitations...
Not to put too fine a point on your metaphor, but the different training methods deployed by ChatGPT vs Claude, for example, changes that a bit regarding who did the “selective breeding”, arguably nurture vs nature, respectively
Also, "monopoly on violence" is deputised in a lot of ways, including "Stand Your Ground" laws, and "Castle doctrine" (which may or may not include a workplace), and what's allowed for trespass and if trespass includes not leaving when told to.
(And even when it's more of a first amendment issue than a fourth, there's also occasional news stories about people getting sued for leaving negative reviews of a business because the business snuck in a no-disparagement clause into the terms and conditions).
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