“For this not to be a bubble by definition, it requires that the benefits of this are much more evenly spread,” said Nadella. He noted that a “tell-tale sign of if it’s a bubble” would be if only tech groups were benefiting from the rise of AI, rather than companies in other sectors.
“I’m much more confident that this is a technology that will, in fact, build on the rails of cloud and mobile, diffuse faster, and bend the productivity curve, and bring local surplus and economic growth all around the world,” he said.
Well, your own quote of Nadella seems to match perfectly if you see through the buffoonery:
> "this would be a bubble ... if only tech groups were benefiting from the rise of AI, rather than companies in other sectors."
Translating from weasel-speak:
The "companies in other sectors" can be "benefiting from the rise of AI" only if they adopt some AI which, not quite coincidentally, is sold and pushed by Nadella's organization among others.
OpenAI will probably generate an astounding $30 billion this year, but that number needs to hit $200 billion four years from now to ensure profitability and survival. And none of the usual four growth vectors suggest this is possible, let alone likely.
They grew 3x in 2024 and then 4x in 2025 to $20b ARR. If they grow 4x again in 2026, they're at $80b.
The "astounding" $30b is an afterthought. They're surely going to hit it. I think they can hit it even if they don't monetize a single free user. But they are already starting to now with ads.
Anyways, let's just ignore revenue for a second.
OpenAI has:
* ~1 billion users
* "Ask ChatGPT" is the same as "google it" for the masses
* Best models according to ARC AGI (it's not very close)
* $40b fresh in the bank from Softbank
* Up to $100b investment from Nvidia
* An IPO that will most likely be the most anticipated ever. I'm betting they will IPO at well over $1 trillion and raise a cool $100b.
* Ability to raise debt
* Ability to raise more VC money if they want
These OpenAI doomer articles are quite tiring. It's easy to get engagement by being negative.
Companies can’t buy new Nvidia GPUs because their older Nvidia GPUs are obsolete. However, the old GPUs are only obsolete if companies buy the new Nvidia GPUs.
Anthropic is using the "China bad" excuse to increase their own pockets. They don't want competition from Chinese models. They don't want chip supply competition for Nvidia chips.
CEO keeps on using national security as an excuse and that US should own all the power with AGI.
If you disagree with him, then don't use Claude. Use OpenAI and Gemini.
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