I used to think the OpenAI valuation was a bit steep and if you base it purely on revenue today, it's an absurd valuation.
But when you think Google did ~$265B in ad revenue last year (a large portion of their ~$350B in total revenue) - I think $500B is probably about right for OpenAI.
ChatGPT has 800 million users today. Not crazy to bet on that being 1B within the next couple years. If they turned on ads for that product alone the advertising revenue would be immense. They also have so many other avenues to find and generate revenue from (partnerships, FDEs, their PaaS).
I can see why investors are still piling in at $500B. The bets are 1) The costs will come down 2) they will start to capture a lot of revenue from their products and services 3) their consumer products will continue to grow.
None of these seem crazy to me. OpenAI could well be a legit $1T+ company (based on revenue + growth) in the not too distant future.
I agree. I can get behind people using AI to build/replace stuff, but if it's anything beyond stupidly simple it's going to require a lot of thought and time - even if that ends up being time spent writing increasingly detailed prompts and testing the output instead of writing code directly.
Yeah agree that AI/LLMs will replace _certain_ types of software products!
I also believe someone could build/replace a product with 100% LLM written code - I just don't believe the effort involved in the building/maintenance of it is so low that it's worth doing.
But when you think Google did ~$265B in ad revenue last year (a large portion of their ~$350B in total revenue) - I think $500B is probably about right for OpenAI.
ChatGPT has 800 million users today. Not crazy to bet on that being 1B within the next couple years. If they turned on ads for that product alone the advertising revenue would be immense. They also have so many other avenues to find and generate revenue from (partnerships, FDEs, their PaaS).
I can see why investors are still piling in at $500B. The bets are 1) The costs will come down 2) they will start to capture a lot of revenue from their products and services 3) their consumer products will continue to grow.
None of these seem crazy to me. OpenAI could well be a legit $1T+ company (based on revenue + growth) in the not too distant future.