Bitcasa has always had atrocious customer service.
I used their infinite plan for a year but stopped when 20gb of my data suddenly disappeared from my drive. The response I got from customer support was basically "what do you want us to do about it? You should back up all your data."
Thankfully I did have a secondary backup, but yeah... I never got the feeling anyone at that company gave a damn about the customers.
Your methodology will depend on the product or service you plan to offer. If it's software you could build an interactive mockup. If it's a physical product you could hire a 3D artist to create some photo-realistic renders based on your product specs. The rest really comes down to having a strong knowledge of your market and your offer. Like Elyrly said, you could go the crowdfunding route. You could also set up your own landing page and accept email addresses or pre-orders. The key is to make sure you have a strategy and system in place to actually fulfill your promise. That might mean lining up manufacturers or other vendors ahead of time, creating a budget, and working out a timeline for fulfillment.
3D Rendering. There are a ton of 3D Packages out there such as Blender, Cinema 4D, MODO, 3DS Max, Maya, etc...
The product is modeled in 3D and then likely exported to Photoshop where Smart Objects can be used to insert screenshots. You could also insert screenshots directly in 3D using materials.
3D Photo-realistic rendering is quite common these days in the product photography, automotive, and architectural industries.
Often times, a specialty rendering engine is used like V-Ray, Maxwell, or Keyshot.
Why wouldn't there be a place for you? Web technologies are only going to increase in importance. If you're worried about competition, you'll need to get over that. Fear of competition comes from a scarcity mindset. Instead of focusing on what other people are doing (the competition), choose to focus on increasing your own skills and value. If you do that, you'll naturally surpass those people who choose to become complacent and put in the bare minimum. You have a marketing background, so that helps a great deal. There's no shortage of talented developers, but there are a shortage of talented developers who know how to market themselves and present their ideas and value to clients. If you're skilled at what you do AND you know how to market and sell that value to clients, the sky's the limit for you.
It's not so much competition, but I have heard a lot recently about there being a web dev bubble of sorts. Especially with me being 1 year out from being a solid junior dev I just wanted to get the take of those in the field already.
My sense is that there's a salary bubble, but not a job bubble. I think it would make sense to expect average webdev salaries in a few years to be lower than today's. Still seems to me like it's a good time to start learning, though!
I'm not sure who this game is aimed at, but if you're trying to teach cognitive biases to people with no training in psychology you really need to add a tutorial to the beginning. I would have loved to go further with the game, but I became frustrated at the very first question when I was confronted with this:
"Drag down the circle so that your belief covers all answers that you think are reasonable. This diagram is your belief graph."
I have no idea what a "belief graph" is, or how to use one. I though I had answered the question by entering a number into the field, but then I'm presented with this strange graph.
Perhaps I'm in the minority around here when it comes to my knowledge of this domain, but if this is a game intended for laypeople, you need to be really clear and assume I know nothing at all about your methods and practices. Explain to me what a belief graph is and how to use it. Either have a pre-game tutorial, or use tool tips.
The problems absolutely illustrate the concept if you have a reliable overconfidence confidence bias. You do not need a background in psychology to understand "Hey, I feel 90% confidence, but am being surprised nearly 1 in 3 times. There's some kind of miscalibration going on there."
First of all, DO NOT quit your job unless your new business is making money. You know what's worse than working a job you hate? Not having any money at all.
Secondly, stop trying to start the process with an idea. The best way to come up with a solid business idea is to pick a market (preferably one you know something about) and learn as much as you can about it. Observe what people are saying. Write down what people are complaining about. Get to know them inside and out. Once you've done the market research, THEN brainstorm ideas based on that research. Start small. Build a landing page with an email submit and shop the link around to your market. If they bite (which they should if you did your research properly), then work on building out the product.
All that work should cost you nothing more than time and hosting/design. Save that $5000 for when you'll really need it—after your product has been validated and you have interest/pre-orders.
My opinion on the matter of learning design has always been to place a primary focus on the basic elements and principles (see link at bottom).
There are plenty of abstract design theories to study, but when it comes down to actually working, there is no substitute for a mastery of the basics. Paul Rand has some practical thoughts on design in his books.
Overall, I would place an emphasis on learning to articulate the problems you need to solve through design. Design is not something you can learn in the abstract—there can be no effective design without first defining the problem(s) your project presents. I would say design is 90% problem solving and 10% aesthetics.
I've found the best way to learn design is to first understand the basics, then go out and apply them to the designs you encounter. Look at other interface/web designs and ask yourself questions based on the principles you've learned. The key here is to understand the "why" behind the "how".
As for the "how", project-based tutorials are okay, but you should be careful not to get lost in the actual project. You want to be gathering techniques, not just following steps.
I think you have to be comfortable with the nature of the industry you're working in. Startups are volatile beasts. One minute you're on top, the next you're picking up quarters off the floor trying to keep things afloat. I think what you're experiencing, more than anything, are the natural growing pains of being an early employee in a fledgling company.
I don't think you're deficient in any of the ways you list, but perhaps you are looking for a more stable work environment with a proven business model.
Do you need an accurate model (from an engineering standpoint) or just a visual representation of the product?
If you don't need a complex model, you can use a simple 3D tool like Google SketchUp. That would probably be the easiest solution. If you've got a little money to spare, there are plenty of CG artists that can work up a model for you and render it in a photo-realistic manner.
I used their infinite plan for a year but stopped when 20gb of my data suddenly disappeared from my drive. The response I got from customer support was basically "what do you want us to do about it? You should back up all your data."
Thankfully I did have a secondary backup, but yeah... I never got the feeling anyone at that company gave a damn about the customers.