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… by some fool who didn’t know what they were doing, since evidently the same behavior could be done with less.

It’s not like this is a new tactic, china has been very successful at wiping out competition by undercutting them using state subsidies in many sectors of the economy.

> wiping out competition by undercutting them using state subsidies

The same tactic is in the USA. Like every new AI datacenter has ~10 tax waiver + explicit subsidies + favorable loans, etc, etc.


Not even mentioning the many instances where US corporate interests were defended and advanced by US military force abroad.

As always, the US has a government removing red tape to foster innovation, while China has a regime, unfairly picking winners, to hurt and subvert the West.

this is not an accurate picture of Chinese industrial policy. In fact, you could argue they have the opposite problem. Their industrial policy encourages too many companies to enter a space, where the resulting competition kills off profit margins for whichever companies end up surviving until the end. This is exactly what we end up seeing with extremely cheap Chinese goods.

If china anointed one company per sector, they would have no reason to be so cost competitive globally. There would be no structural cause for Chinese products to outcompete the rest of the world. You can see some of this in the US, where these kinds of anointed companies exist (say e.g. Boeing/other defense contractors, at least post the 90's). They are (famously) not particularly cost competitive. This is also exactly what you'd expect economically.


Please read up on what's really going on inside China when it comes to industrial policy and innovation. Barry Naughton has a nice series of books and papers that might disperse some of your incorrect preconceptions.

They already have those, for several years if I’m not mistaken.

I’m not sure how you construe “country implements desperate measures during time of existential crisis” with technology only working for a small cabal? If anything this shows that this particular technology is more egalitarian than its predecessors, since it’s cheap and being used effectively by a smaller country defending itself against the territorial ambitions of its imperialist neighbor.

but we’re going to get a 90% cost reduction in the next 18 months… right? Right guys? Sam Altman wouldn’t lie right?

Laying the blame for the transparent financial manipulation we are observing at the feet of regular people (who are putting their savings into their pension funds, a system that we incentivize because of its pro social outcomes) and saying they should just opt out because they should know better, is at best callous, most people should not have to think about that issue at all.

You seem to have misunderstood my comment.

Sure, but you lost the non technical audience by the end of the first sentence.

Then what are we talking about? If this is only about comfort of people who don't give a shit anyways then just relate it to money or cartoons or whatever and walk away. It just doesn't matter.

The only audience qualified to make technical decisions.

Some of the exams in Berkeley were brutal, but they never felt like trick questions, they did on occasion require a level of mastery of the material which was extreme, but it never felt like someone was just trying to make the questions obtuse for the sake of it.

No one consented to training llms, as the op clearly implies, if they had been asked they would have declined to do so. As would all of the many copyright holders who are in the process of suing the model companies.


They all know it’s coming, if it pops before they ipo then they don’t get their billion dollar payday, they have every incentive to move quickly.


FYI they have about a 365 day lockup after IPO before the execs can sell.


They get to sell 20% on day two. Get f’ed everyone!

https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/05/29/spacexs-massive-ip...


Did you read your own link? Quote: "Musk himself is not allowed to participate in any of the early-release provisions."


S-1 isn’t public yet. Source on the lockup period? SpaceX for example filed with accelerated release of insider/investor shares so I don’t think we can know if this is the case until the filing documents become public.


sure but it would be really weird if there wasn't one


Look at SpaceXs filing. There is one but it is super short. I was just pointing out that 365day lockup is likely incorrect and OP doesn’t really know that until the filing is approved and becomes public.


i mean spacex filing reads more like an investor prospectus than an s-1 so, its a few standard deviations off the norm



Going to give the benefit of the doubt here. I know what lockup period means.

365day lockup isn’t a universal standard. For example for SpaceX 20% of insider shares can be sold in the first few days. 100% within the first 3 months.

Without a public S-1 filing we don’t know what the lockup for Anthropic will be


I'm sure they can get private loads or similiar way to "hedge" those? also dark markets and other tricks exist. Fin. eng. level goes way higher for them, just contact inv. banker or their lower class friends. They will find a way.


It cant be that simple, I am sure that they will find some way to make money before that


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