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World Cup / Summer.

typically unemployment rates are seasonally adjusted.

That annual US world cup season?

Seasonality needn't be regular, only predictable.

>the quality of discussion on HN has gone to shit, i miss when model released used to have actual informed takes from people that used them or substantive discussion about the system card

Your comment earlier.

Edit: also, not much change in the last 10 years in prison population. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn04...


https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/select-communications-off...

12k people a year thrown in prison for spicy tweets


So roughly 0.017% of the population.

"Spicy tweets" including:

sending false communications

sending threatening communications

sending or showing flashing images electronically to people with epilepsy intending to cause them harm (‘epilepsy trolling’)

encouraging or assisting serious self-harm

sending a photograph or film of a person’s genitals (‘cyberflashing’)

sharing or threatening to share intimate photographs or film


Or a lot more commonly - critique of immigration policy

You are obviously invested in this narrative driven by Musk but you need to back it up properly.

Why did you choose to lie about this today? I'm genuinely interesting – this is trivially obviously not true, so what motivated this?

That is not a true statement.

Here's a good break down and explanation of what that number actually means - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tB3WVygAM8I


That link says “12k arrests”, not thrown to prison! It’s also not clear how reliable that data is

Nothing here is new, it is the thing we have been talking about for a while but now with guardrails.

Yeah; unfortunately what would good commentary look like? It is more of the same, but now with even higher prices, and even more limited availability. But at least it scores 5% better in whatever benchmark they've selected (*when guardrails don't misfire).

People are no longer commonly constrained by "model too dumb" limitations (in SOTA models). They're constrained by "model too expensive." So making the model ever so slightly smarter, while doubling the price, feels like a regression.

I actually think a Sonnet upgrade, while keeping the same price, would get more buzz. It addresses a wall a LOT of people, without unlimited budgets, are hitting (i.e. people feel forced to use Opus, which they cannot afford, because of Sonnet's limitations).

OpenAI recently retired Codex-5.3; which was very negatively received. Not because Codex-5.3 is superior to GPT 5.5, but because it was half the usage-cost while being "good enough." They made a better SOTA, but didn't realize that some of those customers are playing with Deepseek 4 Pro now instead of GPT 5.4/5.5 -- they were priced out.


Many people do have unlimited budgets because their work pays for it. Just because the latest SOTA model isn't something most consumers can afford for personal use doesn't mean it's not worth releasing or discussing. I would guess that the vast majority of software that benefits from being on the bleeding edge is developed by people working at companies on API pricing.

If you have nothing valuable to say, don't say it? Not writing anything is a perfectly valid option.

I don't know why people with low budgets make a huge stink about things they can't afford. Like you're clearly not the target audience. I drive a Mercedes but don't complain about not being able to afford a Maybach.

The comparisons between the two nations are always superficial. When you peel the layers of nonsense off, it is just white supremacy with a mediocre attempt at masking it.

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>if people don't want parts of London to resemble Delhi,

Well, there you have it. These people always shoot themselves in the foot.

The other guy thought I was Indian and told me about how "weak" it is only one response later as well. Interesting, I suppose Indians are currently the most socially acceptable to be racist towards.


If someone criticizes Delhi and your mind jumps to people's skin color--instead of literally everything else about the city--then you're the racist.

None of the Indians (or Pakistanis and Bangladeshis) living in London want parts of London to resemble Delhi. They left their families and homeland behind to get away from Delhi and places like it.


>If someone criticizes Delhi and your mind jumps to people's skin color--instead of literally everything else about the city--then you're the racist.

Hmm American spelling and a low effort attempt at DARVO.

So let's just cut through the noise. You obviously picked Delhi and the other guy picked India out of everything else and this is clearly not a coincidence. And there are certainly worse places.

My guess is the Henry Nowak case has recently made it more socially acceptable to be racist towards Indians.


> You obviously picked Delhi and the other guy picked India out of everything else and this is clearly not a coincidence. And there are certainly worse places.

Of course it's not a coincidence. India simply is the largest and most well-recognized example of third-world disorder and dysfunction. It's the second largest country in the world and the single largest source of immigrants to the U.K. Other places are worse--for example, Dhaka--but a random person on the Internet is much more likely to have seen pictures of Delhi than Dhaka.


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I originally had a sarcasm tag but felt it wasn’t necessary.

Japan never colonised India, Japan never colonised an African nation, Japan never colonised a Caribbean nation.

Britain overnight cannot have a fresh start from its past, even the royals have ties to other nations. The England that was always English never existed and its history will always be rooted in the British empire (where the sun never set).


Well Britain didn't genocide the Chinese. And all the countries colonized by Britain are now better of then those that weren't. Look at ex-Rhodesia.

I'm not sure that creating mass addiction and collapsing the Chinese economy by forcibly industrializing and scaling up the opium trade was so much better: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opium_Wars

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I obviously hurt your feelings but thank you for the facts that clearly changes everything.

You didn't hurt my feelings. You came on here and boasted about how weak your country was.

>You didn't hurt my feelings. You came on here and boasted about how weak your country was.

This is a very bizarre response. Don't mind if I screenshot this and write an email. Very strange behaviour.


Because of the World Cup with the article fails to mention.

There's generally an uptick at the start of summer and around the end of year holidays. Cannot imagine it's all for football, but also surprising given the news cycle centered on ai/tech layoffs

theres also generally a revision in a few months to the actual number; of course, the longer congress persists in being asleep at the wheel, the less likely these numbers are true.

The belief (for some) is that it will create new jobs like previous revolutions. No one has said what those will look like yet though.

There has been a lot of posturing from both sides, this is probably going to continue for a couple of months more before they reach equilibrium.

I don't think we should consider gross incompetence on the part of the US to be posturing.

I'm only giving a neutral perspective. The moment the world stops relying on oil, Iran will lose its biggest leverage in this situation. Other sources of energy are going to be pushed even more.

There is more that goes through Hormuz than just oil- like fertilizer for example. Just been able to charge a fee for crossing the Hormuz is a strategic goal for Iran. This is an outcome of the war. Previously Iran did not know how weak US is - but now they figured out.

It would be interesting to see if this war will be a net negative for Israel. If Iran emerges with more financial resources out of the war you can bet they will fund Hamas and Hezbollah more than before the war.


Fertilizer exports are a problem but trucks are keeping it moving at a somewhat higher cost.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/fertiliser-stuck-i...


I was wondering what the solution to this was.

From a distance, a railroad here would be great. Pay Ukraine to keep the drones away from it. I've been to the region, I understand that a sandy desert is a tough place to keep a rail line open though.


Millions of tons of chemicals, fertilizer, and metals used to pass through the strait, not just oil.

> The moment the world stops relying on oil,

This isn't happening anytime soon.


Yeah, I don't see it. Trump is also pathologically incapable of admitting defeat (see Jan 6) and it will be very difficult for him to claim victory without getting something better than the deal Obama got. There's little to no incentive for Iran to give him any such deal. Israel also doesn't want the war to end and they can easily sabotage any real negotiations that appear to be getting serious.

Trump has no off ramp. I don't see this ending until he is out of office.


There isn't US boots on the ground because that would be absolute suicide, have you followed anything that's been going on? It is an asymmetric war they cannot win.

And yes "decentralised" meaning we have personal echo-chambers or a swarm of Elon sycophant accounts with inflated number of views and bots mass liking each extremist post. LLMs are going to put astroturfing campaigns on steroids.


Unfortunately we are/have been run by sociopaths like Boris Johnson who indeed do think this is a good thing.

"Former British PM Boris Johnson says falling birthrates ‘best news in long time’"

"Mr Johnson said the promised productivity gains from AI should mean less need for population growth"

"They can’t simultaneously complain that machines are making human workers unnecessary while also demanding that we import or create more human beings to do the work.”"

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/parenting/babies/former-br...


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